BEAR regime confirmed at 100% confidence with 98% persistence probability and 15-day duration. The market is locked in a risk-off state with extremely low transition probability to BULL (0.9%). Yield curve is no longer inverted (T10Y2Y +0.52%), signaling potential recession fears have moderated, but VIX at 25.25 remains elevated (>20 threshold), indicating sustained market stress. Unemployment has risen 40 bps YoY to 4.4%, and consumer sentiment has deteriorated sharply (-8.1 YoY to 56.6), reflecting weakening confidence despite non-inverted yield curve. Fed Funds Rate at 3.64% suggests policy is restrictive but not aggressively tightening further. The macro environment is characterized by a stalled labor market, deteriorating consumer confidence, and persistent equity market stress—classic BEAR regime conditions.

Restrictive and paused. Fed Funds Rate at 3.64% is elevated relative to neutral (estimated ~2.5%), indicating ongoing monetary tightness. The non-inverted yield curve (+0.52% T10Y2Y) suggests the Fed is not actively tightening further, but rates remain restrictive for rate-sensitive sectors. No evidence of imminent rate cuts given inflation data is missing; policy is likely on hold pending clearer disinflation signals. This stance is a headwind for growth-dependent and rate-sensitive themes.

Uncertain due to missing CPI data, but indirect signals suggest inflation may be moderating. The non-inverted yield curve and elevated VIX despite non-inverted curve suggest the market is pricing recession risk rather than inflation risk. Consumer sentiment at 56.6 (down 8.1 YoY) indicates consumers are not panicking about price levels but rather about growth and employment. Without current CPI data, assume inflation is either stable or slowly declining, reducing near-term pressure for further Fed tightening. This is a modest tailwind for rate-sensitive themes if inflation continues to cool.

Decelerating. Unemployment at 4.4% (up 40 bps YoY) and consumer sentiment at 56.6 (down 8.1 YoY) signal weakening labor market and consumer demand. Housing starts at 1,487K units (up 9.5% YoY) show resilience, but this is offset by deteriorating sentiment. Jobless claims at 210K are stable but not declining, suggesting labor market momentum is flat to negative. ISM Manufacturing Employment at 12,573 (no prior data to compare) provides limited signal, but the combination of rising unemployment and falling sentiment points to sub-trend growth ahead. BEAR regime at 100% confidence reinforces this outlook. Growth is likely to decelerate in coming quarters.

Explanation: AI & Compute is a high-beta growth theme heavily exposed to equity risk-off conditions. BEAR regime at 100% confidence with VIX at 25.25 (elevated) creates a strong headwind. Deteriorating consumer sentiment (-8.1 YoY) and rising unemployment (4.4%, +40 bps YoY) signal weakening demand for discretionary tech spending. However, AI infrastructure has structural tailwinds (energy demand, compute scarcity) that provide partial offset. Net impact is moderately negative due to near-term macro stress, but not catastrophic given long-term thesis strength.

Explanation: Real Estate & Construction faces a severe macro headwind. Fed Funds Rate at 3.64% remains restrictive for mortgage rates and cap rates. Consumer sentiment at 56.6 (down 8.1 YoY) is a critical negative for housing demand. Housing starts at 1,487K units (+9.5% YoY) show surface resilience, but this is likely lagged data reflecting prior-period confidence. Rising unemployment (4.4%, +40 bps YoY) will suppress future housing demand. BEAR regime and elevated VIX create risk-off conditions that typically depress real estate valuations. Prior session flagged LEN at 83.7% of drawdown threshold—real estate is under severe stress.

Explanation: Energy & Grid Infrastructure faces mixed signals. Structural tailwind from AI power demand and grid modernization needs is offset by macro headwinds. BEAR regime and elevated VIX (25.25) create risk-off conditions that depress capital-intensive infrastructure spending. Rising unemployment and falling consumer sentiment reduce near-term demand for energy. However, nuclear renaissance and grid modernization are policy-driven and less cyclical. Prior session flagged SMR at/beyond 12% drawdown threshold breach—the position is under severe stress, but the theme's structural case remains intact. Net impact is moderately negative near-term.

Explanation: Defense & Aerospace is relatively macro-insensitive but faces near-term headwinds from BEAR regime and elevated VIX. Geopolitical tailwinds (Iran conflict, structural replenishment cycles) provide partial offset. Prior session narrative shift flagged defense bifurcation: tactical conflict premium is unwinding (PPA ETF -11.55%), but structural 7-year replenishment contracts (Patriot, EW, autonomous systems) remain intact. PLTR at 89.8% of drawdown threshold is a critical risk flag, but this reflects valuation stress rather than defense fundamentals. Net impact is slightly negative near-term due to macro stress, but conviction should remain elevated for structural defense demand.

Explanation: Quantum Computing is an early-stage, high-beta growth theme with extreme sensitivity to risk-off conditions. BEAR regime at 100% confidence and VIX at 25.25 (elevated) create a severe headwind. Deteriorating consumer sentiment and rising unemployment reduce venture capital and corporate R&D spending. Quantum has no near-term revenue and is purely a speculative bet on future breakthroughs—exactly the type of asset that gets sold in BEAR markets. Prior session flagged IONQ at 51.6% of drawdown threshold consumed. This theme is under severe macro stress with no offsetting tailwinds.

Explanation: Biotech & Health faces moderate macro headwinds despite strong structural tailwinds (GLP-1 revolution, aging population, CRISPR). BEAR regime and elevated VIX create risk-off conditions that depress biotech valuations. Rising unemployment and falling consumer sentiment reduce discretionary healthcare spending and biotech funding. However, prior session narrative shift flagged GLP-1 oral delivery as a category-defining event (Lilly's Foundayo approval, mass-market disruption), which is a structural tailwind independent of macro conditions. Net impact is moderately negative near-term, but the GLP-1 narrative shift provides partial offset. Conviction should remain elevated for long-term thesis.

Explanation: Crypto & Digital Assets faces a severe macro headwind. BEAR regime at 100% confidence with VIX at 25.25 (elevated) creates extreme risk-off conditions. Crypto is a high-beta, speculative asset class that correlates strongly with equity risk appetite and liquidity conditions. Rising unemployment (4.4%, +40 bps YoY) and deteriorating consumer sentiment (-8.1 YoY) reduce retail participation and corporate accumulation. Prior session narrative shift flagged Strategy's pause in BTC buying and $42B ATM filing as a break in the 'corporate buyer-of-last-resort' narrative. COIN at 66.7% of drawdown threshold and MSTR at 51.2% are critical risk flags. This theme is under severe stress with no offsetting tailwinds in current macro environment.

Explanation: Defensive / Hedge is the only theme with a strong tailwind in current macro environment. BEAR regime at 100% confidence, elevated VIX (25.25), rising unemployment (4.4%, +40 bps YoY), and deteriorating consumer sentiment (-8.1 YoY) all drive capital flows into defensive assets (consumer staples, gold, bonds). Non-inverted yield curve (+0.52% T10Y2Y) suggests bonds are attractive relative to equities. This is the classic risk-off environment where defensive assets outperform. Defensive positioning is the appropriate macro hedge in current conditions.

THRESHOLD BREACH ACTIVE: SMR (energy_grid) has breached its 12% max_drawdown threshold (portfolio drawdown -11.79% to -12.09% across recent sessions = 98-101% consumed). This is an active risk limit violation requiring immediate exit. Prior sessions flagged this as the portfolio's most dangerous position by VaR magnitude (-9.87% daily VaR). Continued holding violates risk discipline.

BREACH IMMINENT: PLTR (defense_aerospace) at 89.8% of 10% drawdown threshold consumed with -5.68% daily VaR. Needs only -1.02% more to breach. Flagged for 16+ consecutive sessions with ZERO exits despite 16 prior vetoes. Breach is mathematically certain on any adverse day in current BEAR regime.

BREACH IMMINENT: LEN (real_estate) at 83.7% of 10% drawdown threshold consumed with -4.01% daily VaR. Needs only -1.63% more to breach. Will breach on any down day. Real estate theme is under severe macro stress due to restrictive Fed Funds Rate (3.64%), deteriorating consumer sentiment (-8.1 YoY), and rising unemployment (+40 bps YoY).

CRYPTO SYSTEMIC FAILURE: COIN at 66.7% of 20% threshold consumed with -6.57% daily VaR (breach in ~0.94 adverse days). Crypto_digital flagged CRITICAL for 19th consecutive session with ZERO EXITS despite 17 prior vetoes. Prior session narrative shift flagged Strategy's pause in BTC accumulation and $42B ATM filing as a break in the 'corporate buyer-of-last-resort' narrative. This is a systemic risk discipline failure.

VIX ELEVATED AT 25.25: Market fear gauge is above 20 threshold, signaling elevated tail risk. BEAR regime at 100% confidence with 98% persistence probability and only 0.9% transition to BULL suggests sustained stress. Combined with rising unemployment (4.4%, +40 bps YoY) and deteriorating consumer sentiment (56.6, -8.1 YoY), this creates a high-probability environment for further equity drawdowns.

CONSUMER SENTIMENT COLLAPSE: Index at 56.6 is down 8.1 YoY (12.5% decline). This is the lowest level in the dataset and signals severe loss of consumer confidence. Combined with rising unemployment (+40 bps YoY to 4.4%), this suggests demand destruction ahead. Housing starts at 1,487K (+9.5% YoY) may be lagged data; forward-looking demand is likely to weaken significantly.

Summary: The macro environment is locked in a BEAR regime (100% confidence, 98% persistence) with elevated VIX (25.25), rising unemployment (4.4%, +40 bps YoY), and collapsing consumer sentiment (56.6, -8.1 YoY). Fed Funds Rate at 3.64% remains restrictive, and the non-inverted yield curve (+0.52%) suggests recession fears have moderated but equity stress persists. This creates a severe headwind for all growth and rate-sensitive themes (ai_compute -0.55, real_estate -0.65, quantum -0.60, crypto_digital -0.75) while providing a strong tailwind for defensive assets (+0.70). The portfolio faces critical risk violations: SMR has breached its 12% drawdown threshold (active violation), PLTR is at 89.8% of 10% threshold (breach certain on any adverse day), and crypto_digital positions are at critical levels with 19 consecutive sessions flagged and zero exits. The macro case for conviction increases is extremely weak; all capital should be directed toward exiting breached/critical positions and rotating into defensive positioning until BEAR regime shows signs of transition.

Eli Lilly wins FDA approval for oral GLP-1 weight-loss pill Foundayo; commercial launch April 6

Trump 100% tariffs on drugmakers without pricing deals — report

Novo Nordisk triple agonist UBT251 Phase 2 positive results; global Phase 3 planned

Merck EU approval for KEYTRUDA in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer

SMCI co-founder Wally Liaw indicted for illegal server exports to China; multiple class action lawsuits filed; stock -65% from highs

Vertiv soars 55% YTD on AI-driven data center demand; soaring orders and expanding capacity

3Fourteen Research: AI and semis are 'where the underlying strength is' amid macro noise

Big Tech H-1B filings plunge as Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft slash jobs amid rising immigration costs

IBM partners with Arm to develop dual-architecture hardware for AI and data-intensive enterprise workloads

OpenAI COO: 'Be long on legacy software' as AI could benefit incumbent platforms

Palantir Pentagon Maven AI formalized as program of record; Stellantis 5-year Foundry renewal; Dan Ives raises target to $230

PLTR down 5.5% despite Pentagon/Stellantis wins; Barron's flags stratospheric valuation vs S&P/Nasdaq P/E

Lockheed Martin powers first crewed Moon mission in 53 years with Orion launch (Artemis II)

Trump re-escalates Iran war; S&P 500/Dow futures plunge; Fear & Greed Index remains in Extreme Fear

NextEra Energy: US-Japan trade deal approves 10GW natural gas in TX/PA; Japan commits $550B; NEE +35.66% 1-year return

Morgan Stanley raises NEE target to $110 (from $106) on load growth and data center demand

Duke Energy +11.7% in 3 months; nuclear strength and aggressive renewable expansion boost clean energy outlook

Xanadu Quantum Technologies IPO pops 15-18% in trading debut despite broad market selloff

IonQ acquires SkyWater Technology for $1.8B; signs KISTI MoU for South Korea quantum infrastructure expansion

IONQ stock -55.2% over 6 months; -3.61% latest session despite market gains; analyst triple-digit price targets intact

MARA sells $1.1B in Bitcoin at a loss to repurchase convertible debt; Metaplanet overtakes MARA as #3 corporate BTC holder

MARA pivots to AI/HPC infrastructure after Bitcoin sale; pure-play Bitcoin miner model 'isn't working anymore'

TD Cowen cuts P&G target to $142 (from $156); Deutsche Bank lowers to $162 — Iran war oil input cost inflation cited

Dividend Aristocrats highlighted as inflation-resistant growth+income plays for retirees amid macro volatility

Realty Income (O) +1.14%, outperforms market; highlighted as defensive income play

Sherwin-Williams: Mizuho lowers target to $371, RBC flags Iran conflict margin risk — demand remains choppy

FDA approves Lilly Foundayo oral GLP-1; commercial launch April 6 at $149/month — below Wegovy subscription price

Wall Street projects multi-billion dollar debut for Foundayo in 2026 alone

Novo Nordisk triple agonist UBT251 Phase 2 positive — Novo is not standing still despite competitive pressure

Trump 100% tariff threat on drugmakers without pricing deals — material policy overhang for the entire sector

Novo's US Chief publicly addresses Lilly rivalry, signals category expansion rather than zero-sum framing

NARRATIVE SHIFT MATURING — ORAL GLP-1 MASS MARKET INFLECTION CONFIRMED: Prior sessions flagged the GLP-1 distribution disruption (injectable → telehealth subscription) and then the oral approval as a structural upgrade. This session confirms the shift is NOW LIVE, not forward-looking. Foundayo launches April 6 at $149/month through Lilly's direct-to-consumer pharmacy — this is the first time a GLP-1 competes at retail consumer price points without a clinic or telehealth intermediary. The market is pricing Lilly's win correctly (LLY +3.8%) but is NOT yet fully pricing: (1) the TARIFF OVERHANG — Trump's 100% tariff threat on drugmakers without pricing deals is a direct counter-narrative that could cap LLY upside and compress NVO margins simultaneously; (2) Novo's triple agonist pipeline (UBT251) is a next-generation response that the market is treating as distant but Phase 3 is now planned globally. The net narrative is strongly bullish for LLY near-term, but the tariff policy risk introduces a binary event risk that the prior sessions' bullish framing did not account for. This is a material evolution of the prior shift — the alpha question has changed from 'will oral GLP-1 disrupt injectables?' (answered: yes) to 'can LLY sustain pricing power under a 100% tariff threat?' The narrative is bullish but now carries a policy tail risk that was absent in prior sessions.

SMCI co-founder indicted for illegal China server exports; multiple class action lawsuits; stock described as 'uninvestable' by investors

Vertiv +55% YTD — AI data center demand narrative remains intact at the infrastructure layer

Big Tech H-1B filings plunge — labor cost headwind emerging for AI buildout velocity

IBM-Arm dual-architecture partnership for AI/enterprise workloads — infrastructure diversification accelerating

OpenAI COO bullish on legacy software benefiting from AI — broadening of AI monetization narrative

3Fourteen Research: AI/semis 'where the underlying strength is' despite macro noise

US-Japan trade deal: 10GW natural gas approved in TX/PA; Japan $550B commitment — NEE directly positioned

Morgan Stanley raises NEE target to $110 on load growth and data center demand

Duke Energy +11.7% in 3 months; nuclear + renewables expansion narrative strengthening

NEE +35.66% 1-year return; 15.66% in 90 days — momentum building but valuation questions emerging

Iran war re-escalation by Trump — oil price spike risk benefits fossil fuel names, complicates renewables cost narrative

Pentagon formalizes Palantir Maven AI as program of record — structural AI-defense convergence confirmed

Palantir Stellantis 5-year Foundry renewal — commercial AI platform durability confirmed

Dan Ives raises PLTR target to $230 (62% upside) — high-conviction bull case intact

PLTR -5.5% despite contract wins; Barron's flags valuation as 'stratospheric' — price/narrative divergence persists

Lockheed Martin Artemis II crewed Moon mission — aerospace milestone, structural program confirmation

Iran war re-escalation — tactical defense premium volatile; prior session's bifurcation thesis (structural vs tactical) remains operative

Xanadu Quantum IPO +15-18% debut — new entrant signals continued investor appetite for quantum exposure

IonQ $1.8B SkyWater acquisition — vertical integration into semiconductor foundry is strategically significant but raises capital risk

IonQ KISTI MoU — international expansion of quantum infrastructure (South Korea)

IONQ -55.2% over 6 months; -3.61% latest session despite market gains — price action diverges from analyst optimism

Analyst triple-digit price targets intact (IONQ, RGTI, QBTS) — long-term bull case preserved but near-term pressure real

MARA sells $1.1B Bitcoin at a loss to repay convertible debt — forced selling, not strategic rotation

Metaplanet overtakes MARA as #3 corporate BTC holder — MARA's identity as a Bitcoin accumulator is structurally broken

MARA pivots to AI/HPC — pure-play Bitcoin miner model described as 'not working anymore' (DLNews)

IREN falls on AI data center funding risks — crypto-to-AI pivot faces capital market skepticism

Prior session flagged Strategy's 13-week buying pause as anchor narrative breakdown — no reversal this session

TD Cowen cuts P&G target to $142; Deutsche Bank lowers to $162 — Iran war oil input cost inflation eroding pricing power

Dividend Aristocrats highlighted as inflation-resistant growth+income plays — demand for defensive positioning rising

Realty Income (O) +1.14%, outperforming market — REIT income plays attracting capital rotation

Fear & Greed Index in Extreme Fear zone — defensive positioning demand structurally elevated

Iran re-escalation by Trump — flight-to-safety bid supports defensive theme despite P&G-specific headwinds

Sherwin-Williams: Mizuho lowers target to $371, RBC flags Iran conflict margin risk — construction materials demand choppy

Realty Income (O) +1.14% — REIT income plays holding up as rate-sensitive defensive

Iran war re-escalation — oil/input cost inflation headwind for construction materials and homebuilders

LEN at 83.7% drawdown threshold consumed per prior session risk flags — portfolio-level risk remains acute

IRAN WAR RE-ESCALATION IS THE DOMINANT MACRO OVERRIDE: Trump's re-escalation (April 2 premarket futures plunge) is the single most important cross-theme signal this session. It simultaneously (1) pressures AI compute via risk-off selling, (2) creates oil input cost inflation that hits defensive staples (P&G) and construction materials (SHW), (3) introduces binary event risk into the biotech_health tariff narrative, (4) supports energy_grid via natural gas/oil price tailwinds, and (5) sustains the defense_aerospace structural bid while unwinding tactical war-premium trades. Every theme is downstream of Iran resolution/escalation.

CRYPTO-TO-AI PIVOT ACCELERATING ACROSS MULTIPLE NAMES: MARA's $1.1B Bitcoin sale to fund AI/HPC pivot, IREN's AI data center push, and the broader 'pure-play Bitcoin miner model isn't working' narrative represent a structural reallocation of crypto infrastructure capital toward AI compute. This is a cross-theme flow that benefits ai_compute (more capital chasing data center buildout) while further weakening crypto_digital's standalone narrative.

TARIFF POLICY CREATES SIMULTANEOUS HEADWINDS ACROSS BIOTECH AND DEFENSIVE: Trump's 100% drugmaker tariff threat (biotech_health) and Iran war oil cost inflation (defensive/P&G, real_estate/SHW) represent a unified policy-driven margin compression narrative. The market has not yet connected these as a single 'Trump cost-push inflation' theme — this cross-domain pattern is underpriced.

AI-DEFENSE CONVERGENCE DEEPENING BUT PRICE ACTION DIVERGING: Palantir's Maven AI program-of-record status and Stellantis Foundry renewal confirm the ai_compute × defense_aerospace convergence thesis. Yet PLTR is -5.5% on the news — the market is telling us valuation is the binding constraint, not the fundamental story. This divergence (strong narrative, weak price response) is the most actionable signal for the defense_aerospace theme.

ENERGY GRID IS THE CLEANEST CROSS-THEME BENEFICIARY: NEE benefits from (1) AI data center load growth (ai_compute demand), (2) US-Japan natural gas deal (policy tailwind), (3) Iran war oil price support for fossil fuel assets, and (4) defensive rotation into regulated utilities. No other theme has this many simultaneous tailwinds — energy_grid is the most consensus-aligned bullish theme this session.

Summary:
SESSION NARRATIVE SUMMARY — APRIL 2, 2026:

The dominant macro signal this session is Trump's Iran war re-escalation, which triggered premarket futures plunges and pushed the Fear & Greed Index deeper into Extreme Fear. This is not a new narrative but a re-intensification that resets the geopolitical risk premium across all themes.

**HIGHEST CONVICTION SIGNAL — BIOTECH_HEALTH NARRATIVE SHIFT MATURING:** The prior two sessions flagged the GLP-1 oral delivery disruption as an emerging shift. This session confirms it is NOW LIVE: Lilly's Foundayo launches April 6 at $149/month direct-to-consumer, below Wegovy's subscription price, through retail pharmacy channels. LLY +3.8% is the correct directional response. However, a critical counter-narrative has emerged that prior sessions did not price: Trump's 100% tariff threat on drugmakers without pricing deals. This is a binary policy event that could cap LLY's pricing power precisely as Foundayo launches. The narrative is bullish but now carries a policy tail risk. Novo's triple agonist pipeline (UBT251, Phase 3 planned globally) confirms the competitive response is real. Net: biotech_health remains the highest narrative score (+0.70) but the tariff overhang is the key risk the market is underweighting.

**PORTFOLIO RISK CONTINUITY — CRITICAL FLAGS PERSIST:** Prior sessions flagged SMR (threshold breached), PLTR (89-90% threshold consumed), LEN (83%+ consumed), and crypto_digital (19+ consecutive sessions critical). This session's news does NOT resolve any of these. PLTR's Maven AI program-of-record win and Stellantis renewal are fundamentally positive but the stock is -5.5% on the news — the market is explicitly telling us valuation is the binding constraint, not the thesis. The defense bifurcation narrative from the prior session (structural replenishment vs. tactical Iran premium) remains operative. Crypto_digital's MARA forced Bitcoin sale and pivot to AI further weakens the standalone crypto narrative — no bullish catalyst to justify holding COIN/MSTR/MARA against the 19-session risk flag.

**ENERGY GRID is the cleanest multi-tailwind theme:** NEE benefits simultaneously from AI data center load growth, the US-Japan natural gas deal, Iran war oil price support, and defensive rotation. This is the most consensus-aligned bullish theme with the fewest cross-currents.

**NO NEW NARRATIVE SHIFTS FLAGGED** beyond the biotech_health maturation (already flagged in prior sessions, now confirmed live). The SMCI legal deterioration, quantum IPO activity, and crypto-to-AI pivot are continuations of established narratives, not new shifts.

NARRATIVE SHIFT NOW LIVE — Foundayo launches April 6 at $149/month direct-to-consumer, the first GLP-1 competing at retail price points without clinic/telehealth intermediary. LLY +3.8% confirms directional market pricing. Wall Street projects multi-billion dollar 2026 debut. Novo's UBT251 Phase 3 planned globally confirms category expansion, not zero-sum competition. Portfolio drawdowns are minimal across all holdings (LLY 0.0%, NVO -1.11%, CRSP 0.0%, ISRG -2.84%, ABBV -1.15%) — no risk threshold concerns. CRSP 3m momentum +11.29% and ABBV +3.89% show resilience. Macro headwind is moderate (-0.35) but the structural GLP-1 disruption is policy-independent. This is the highest-conviction narrative signal in the portfolio this session.

Trump's 100% tariff threat on drugmakers without pricing deals is a binary policy event that could cap LLY pricing power precisely at Foundayo launch. NVO -24.3% 3m momentum and -24.39% relative strength vs SPY signal severe competitive pressure. Theme avg relative strength -10.15% vs SPY is weak. ISRG Sharpe -0.244 and NVO Sharpe -0.972 are drags. BEAR regime at 100% confidence creates risk-off headwinds for biotech valuations. Prior two sessions' +1 proposals were vetoed — but the veto was on portfolio-level PRS grounds (SMR/PLTR/crypto breaches), NOT on biotech fundamentals. The tariff tail risk is the genuine bear case here.

Defensive is already at maximum conviction (9/10) and is the only theme with a strong macro tailwind (+0.70). BEAR regime at 100% confidence, VIX 25.25, Iran re-escalation, and Fear & Greed in Extreme Fear all drive capital flows into consumer staples, gold, and bonds. Quant confirmation is exceptional: theme avg relative strength +11.27% vs SPY, 6m momentum +20.56%, 3m momentum +11.92%. JNJ Sharpe 2.41, GLD Sharpe 1.473 are standout performers. Portfolio drawdowns are negligible across all holdings. GLD and JNJ are the cleanest expressions of the risk-off bid. Dividend Aristocrats narrative and flight-to-safety demand are structurally elevated.

TD Cowen cuts P&G target to $142, Deutsche Bank to $162 — Iran war oil input cost inflation is eroding pricing power for consumer staples. PG Sharpe -1.035 and TLT Sharpe -0.88 are negative. The non-inverted yield curve (+0.52% T10Y2Y) means bonds are less attractive as a pure flight-to-safety trade than in prior inversion regimes. At conviction 9, there is no room to increase further without hitting the ceiling. The defensive theme is doing its job but individual names face margin compression from cost-push inflation.

Energy Grid is the cleanest multi-tailwind theme this session: NEE benefits from (1) AI data center load growth, (2) US-Japan natural gas deal (10GW TX/PA, $550B Japan commitment), (3) Iran war oil price support for fossil fuel assets, (4) defensive rotation into regulated utilities. Morgan Stanley raises NEE target to $110. Duke Energy +11.7% in 3 months. GEV is the standout: +45.95% 3m momentum, +40.82% relative strength vs SPY, Sharpe 2.118 — the best single-stock quant signal in the theme. NEE +19.57% vs SPY. Theme avg relative strength +3.15% vs SPY is positive. UEC +23.81% 3m momentum. Narrative score 0.55 is the second-highest after biotech.

SMR has BREACHED its 12% portfolio drawdown threshold (portfolio drawdown -12.31%, 102.6% consumed) — this is an ACTIVE RISK LIMIT VIOLATION that has persisted for 3+ sessions with zero exits. This single position is the reason energy_grid conviction cannot be increased despite the strong multi-tailwind narrative. SMR daily VaR -9.9% is the largest in the portfolio. CEG portfolio drawdown -7.87% is also elevated. FSLR -25.05% 3m momentum and -19.75% vs SPY are severe drags. Macro impact -0.50 reflects BEAR regime headwinds for capital-intensive infrastructure. Until SMR is exited, increasing energy_grid conviction would be irresponsible.

Pentagon formalizes Palantir Maven AI as program of record — structural AI-defense convergence confirmed. Stellantis 5-year Foundry renewal confirms commercial AI platform durability. Dan Ives raises PLTR target to $230 (62% upside). LMT Artemis II crewed Moon mission confirms structural aerospace program continuity. Theme quant signals are strong: 3m momentum +24.48%, relative strength +14.44% vs SPY, all Sharpe ratios positive (LHX 2.001, RTX 1.325, LMT 1.111). LMT +52.06% 3m, NOC +39.16% 3m, LHX +35.14% 3m — the traditional defense names are performing exceptionally. Defense bifurcation thesis from prior session remains operative: structural replenishment (Patriot, EW, autonomous) is independent of Iran ceasefire.

PLTR portfolio drawdown -8.92% vs 10% threshold = 89.2% consumed — breach is mathematically certain on any adverse day. This has been flagged for 16+ consecutive sessions with ZERO exits. PLTR -5.5% despite Maven AI program-of-record win and Stellantis renewal — the market is explicitly pricing valuation as the binding constraint, not fundamentals. PLTR -12.1% 3m momentum, -13.67% vs SPY. Prior sessions' +1 proposals for defense were vetoed (session 2) and accepted as -1 (session 1). The structural defense thesis is intact but PLTR's risk profile is a portfolio-level emergency. Delta held at 0 pending PLTR exit.

Vertiv +55% YTD confirms AI data center demand narrative at the infrastructure layer. ASML +87.5% 6m, +25.09% 3m, +31.01% vs SPY — strongest single-stock signal in the theme. TSM +54.62% 6m, +22.75% 3m, +16.29% vs SPY. GOOG Sharpe 2.046, TSM Sharpe 1.875, ASML Sharpe 1.792 — top-tier risk-adjusted returns. 3Fourteen Research: AI/semis 'where the underlying strength is.' Palantir Maven AI program-of-record and IBM-Arm partnership confirm AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating. MARA's pivot from Bitcoin to AI/HPC represents cross-theme capital inflow. OpenAI COO bullish on legacy software benefiting from AI broadens monetization narrative.

SMCI co-founder indicted for illegal China server exports — stock described as 'uninvestable,' -66.18% max drawdown, -6.4% portfolio drawdown. MSFT -34.18% max drawdown, -3.56% portfolio drawdown, -19.71% vs SPY. META -33.45% max drawdown, -4.11% portfolio drawdown. Theme avg 3m momentum -2.13% is negative. Theme avg relative strength -1.22% vs SPY is marginally negative. Big Tech H-1B filings plunge signals labor cost headwinds. Macro impact -0.55 reflects BEAR regime risk-off conditions. No narrative shift detected. Prior session +1 proposal was vetoed on portfolio-level PRS grounds. Holding at 0 delta until portfolio risk flags (SMR, PLTR, crypto) are resolved.

Realty Income (O) +1.14%, outperforming market — REIT income plays attracting capital rotation as rate-sensitive defensive. O +15.9% 3m momentum, +13.69% vs SPY — the strongest single-stock signal in the theme. TOL +9.85% 3m, +5.12% vs SPY. VMC and MLM both flat portfolio drawdown (0.0%) with positive 3m momentum. Dividend Aristocrats narrative supports income-oriented REITs. Housing starts +9.5% YoY shows surface resilience.

LEN portfolio drawdown -8.58% vs 10% threshold = 85.8% consumed — WORSENED from 83.7% last session. Breach is imminent on any adverse day (daily VaR -4.03%). LEN -18.29% 6m, -16.75% 3m, -12.97% vs SPY — catastrophic momentum. AMT Sharpe -1.05, LEN Sharpe -0.754, SHW Sharpe -0.402 — multiple negative Sharpe ratios. Macro impact -0.65 is the second-worst in the portfolio. Fed Funds Rate 3.64% remains restrictive for mortgage rates. Consumer sentiment 56.6 (-8.1 YoY) suppresses housing demand. Sherwin-Williams target cuts from Mizuho and RBC. Iran war oil/input cost inflation hits construction materials. Narrative score -0.20. Theme is already at conviction floor (1) — delta -1 is clamped to 1. The real signal here is LEN must be exited.

Xanadu Quantum IPO +15-18% debut despite broad market selloff signals continued investor appetite for quantum exposure. IonQ $1.8B SkyWater acquisition represents vertical integration into semiconductor foundry — strategically significant for long-term manufacturing independence. IonQ KISTI MoU expands quantum infrastructure internationally. Analyst triple-digit price targets intact for IONQ, RGTI, QBTS. GOOG Sharpe 2.046 provides anchor quality in the theme. IBM-Arm partnership for AI/enterprise workloads has quantum adjacency.

IONQ portfolio drawdown -16.07% vs 25% threshold = 64.3% consumed — worsened from 51.6% in prior session. RGTI portfolio drawdown -14.99% vs 25% threshold = 60.0% consumed. IONQ -55.2% over 6 months, -3.61% latest session despite market gains. Theme avg 3m momentum -18.12% — worst in the portfolio. Theme avg relative strength -21.35% vs SPY — worst in the portfolio. IONQ volatility 96.69%, RGTI 109.81% — extreme. Macro impact -0.60 reflects BEAR regime severe headwind for speculative early-stage assets. Narrative score 0.10 — near-zero. No narrative shift detected. Already at conviction floor (1). Quantum is the weakest theme by every quant metric.

XYZ -2.25% 3m momentum is the least negative in the theme. Metaplanet overtaking MARA as #3 corporate BTC holder shows international corporate accumulation continues. Analyst community has not abandoned long-term BTC thesis. MARA's pivot to AI/HPC could unlock value through the crypto-to-AI capital reallocation trend.

COIN portfolio drawdown -13.77% vs 20% threshold = 68.9% consumed — breach in ~1.0 adverse day. MSTR portfolio drawdown -11.75% vs 20% threshold = 58.8% consumed. MARA portfolio drawdown -9.76% vs 20% threshold = 48.8% consumed. This theme has been flagged CRITICAL for 19 consecutive sessions with ZERO exits — systemic risk discipline failure. MARA sells $1.1B Bitcoin AT A LOSS to repay convertible debt — forced selling, not strategic rotation. Pure-play Bitcoin miner model described as 'not working anymore.' Strategy's 13-week buying pause breaks the corporate buyer-of-last-resort narrative (prior session shift). Macro impact -0.75 is the worst in the portfolio. Theme avg 6m momentum -41.17%, 3m momentum -19.88% — catastrophic. Theme avg relative strength -11.51% vs SPY. MSTR Sharpe -0.975, MARA Sharpe -0.195. Already at conviction floor (1) — delta -1 clamped to 1. Every signal says exit.

biotech_health — Foundayo oral GLP-1 launch is NOW LIVE (April 6, $149/month direct-to-consumer), confirming the narrative shift flagged across prior sessions. Portfolio drawdowns are negligible across all biotech holdings. The structural GLP-1 mass-market disruption thesis is independent of macro regime. Conviction increase to 7 is warranted despite BEAR regime headwinds. The tariff tail risk is real but binary and not yet priced — the directional trade is long LLY into the commercial launch.

SMR (energy_grid) has BREACHED its 12% portfolio drawdown threshold for the 3rd+ consecutive session (portfolio drawdown -12.31%, 102.6% consumed) — this is an active risk limit violation. PLTR (defense_aerospace) is at 89.2% of 10% threshold consumed with breach mathematically certain on any adverse day (16+ sessions flagged, ZERO exits). LEN (real_estate) has WORSENED to 85.8% of 10% threshold consumed. COIN (crypto_digital) can breach its 20% threshold within ~1 adverse day. The portfolio's PRS will exceed the 0.70 veto threshold again unless these positions are exited. The Thesis Analyst's single highest-conviction recommendation this session is NOT a conviction increase — it is the immediate exit of SMR, PLTR, LEN, and all crypto_digital positions. No amount of bullish narrative can offset a systemic risk discipline failure now entering its 20th consecutive session.

Summary:
SESSION THESIS SUMMARY — APRIL 2, 2026:

The dominant signal this session is the CONFIRMATION that the biotech_health GLP-1 narrative shift is NOW LIVE, not forward-looking. Foundayo launches April 6 at $149/month direct-to-consumer — this is the first oral GLP-1 competing at retail price points, and it is the highest-conviction bullish signal in the portfolio. Conviction increases from 6 → 7. The tariff overhang (Trump 100% drugmaker threat) is the key binary risk that prior sessions did not price, but it does not negate the structural disruption thesis.

Beyond biotech, the thesis picture is one of HOLDING PATTERNS constrained by portfolio-level risk violations, not by weak fundamentals:

• DEFENSIVE (9): Already at near-maximum conviction. Macro tailwind +0.70, quant confirmation exceptional (+11.27% vs SPY, JNJ Sharpe 2.41, GLD Sharpe 1.473). No change needed — the theme is doing its job.

• ENERGY_GRID (2): The cleanest multi-tailwind theme (NEE US-Japan deal, AI load growth, Iran oil support, defensive rotation). GEV is the standout stock (+45.95% 3m, Sharpe 2.118). But SMR's active threshold breach makes any conviction increase irresponsible. Hold at 2 pending SMR exit.

• DEFENSE_AEROSPACE (4): Structural replenishment thesis intact (LMT +52.06% 3m, NOC +39.16% 3m, LHX Sharpe 2.001). But PLTR at 89.2% threshold consumed with breach certain on any adverse day blocks any increase. Hold at 4 pending PLTR exit.

• AI_COMPUTE (4): ASML and TSM are exceptional (ASML +31.01% vs SPY, TSM +16.29% vs SPY). But SMCI legal deterioration, negative theme avg 3m momentum (-2.13%), and portfolio-level PRS constraints prevent increase. Hold at 4.

• REAL_ESTATE (1): LEN has WORSENED to 85.8% threshold consumed. Narrative score -0.20, macro impact -0.65. Already at floor. The action required is LEN exit, not conviction adjustment.

• QUANTUM (1): Worst quant metrics in the portfolio (-21.35% vs SPY, -18.12% 3m momentum). Already at floor. IONQ and RGTI drawdowns worsening.

• CRYPTO_DIGITAL (1): 19 consecutive sessions critical, ZERO exits, MARA forced Bitcoin sale, Strategy accumulation pause, COIN breach in ~1 adverse day. Already at floor. The action required is immediate exit of all positions.

THE CRITICAL MESSAGE: This is the 17th consecutive session where the portfolio's risk violations are the binding constraint on thesis expression. The bullish signals in biotech, energy, and defense are REAL — but they cannot be acted upon while SMR, PLTR, LEN, and crypto_digital positions remain open in violation of or approaching risk thresholds. Exit the breached positions. Then the thesis can breathe.

ACTIVE THRESHOLD BREACH — SMR portfolio drawdown -12.31% has EXCEEDED the 12% max_drawdown threshold (102.6% consumed). This is the 3rd consecutive session in violation. Prior sessions recorded -12.09% (100.8%) and -11.79% (98.3%) — the breach is DEEPENING, not healing. SMR daily VaR is -9.90%, the single largest VaR in the entire portfolio.

SMR annualized volatility is 105.37% — the highest of any position in the portfolio. In a BEAR regime with 100% confidence and 98% persistence, this position has no risk-adjusted justification for continued holding.

CEG portfolio drawdown at -7.87% with -4.74% daily VaR and negative 3m momentum (-9.52%) — secondary stress building within the theme.

Theme average volatility of 62.44% is the second highest across all themes, exceeded only by crypto_digital (71.32%).

Every session of delay on SMR exit increases realized loss. The position has moved from 89.0% → 100.8% → 98.3% → 102.6% consumed across 4 sessions. EXIT IS NON-NEGOTIABLE.

20th CONSECUTIVE SESSION FLAGGED CRITICAL with ZERO EXITS despite 17 prior vetoes — this is the most egregious risk discipline failure in the portfolio's history.

COIN portfolio drawdown -13.77% vs 20% threshold = 68.9% consumed. Daily VaR -6.58% means breach in ~0.95 adverse days — COIN CAN BREACH ITS THRESHOLD TODAY.

MSTR portfolio drawdown -11.75% vs 20% threshold = 58.8% consumed. Daily VaR -7.53%. MSTR has WORSENED from 51.2% consumed in prior sessions.

MARA portfolio drawdown -9.76% vs 20% threshold = 48.8% consumed. Daily VaR -8.02% — the second highest VaR in the entire portfolio after SMR.

Theme average 6m momentum is -41.17% and 3m momentum is -19.88% — the worst momentum of ANY theme by a massive margin. Theme relative strength vs SPY is -11.51%.

Concentration HHI at 0.3061 exceeds the 0.25 threshold — concentrated bets in a collapsing theme.

Narrative shift from prior session confirmed: Strategy's BTC accumulation pause breaks the corporate buyer-of-last-resort narrative. No offsetting bullish catalyst exists.

Theme average volatility of 71.32% is the HIGHEST of any theme. Average Sharpe ratio is -0.178 — negative risk-adjusted returns.

Macro impact score of -0.75 is the worst of any theme. BEAR regime + speculative assets = maximum vulnerability.

PLTR portfolio drawdown -8.92% vs 10% threshold = 89.2% consumed. Needs only -1.08% more to breach. Daily VaR -5.69% GUARANTEES breach on any adverse day. Flagged for 17+ consecutive sessions with ZERO exits.

PLTR 3m momentum is -12.10% and relative strength vs SPY is -13.67% — the only defense name with negative momentum. PLTR is a valuation-driven tech stock masquerading as a defense holding.

PLTR volatility at 57.80% is 2x the theme average of the other 5 defense names (~26%). It is a portfolio-level risk outlier within an otherwise strong theme.

The broader defense theme is actually STRONG: LMT +52.06% 3m, NOC +39.16% 3m, LHX +35.14% 3m, theme avg relative strength +14.44% vs SPY. The problem is entirely PLTR-specific.

Prior session narrative shift confirmed defense bifurcation: structural replenishment names (LMT, NOC, LHX) are working; tactical/valuation names (PLTR) are not. PLTR must be separated from the defense thesis.

LEN portfolio drawdown -8.58% vs 10% threshold = 85.8% consumed — WORSENED from 83.7% last session and 82.8% the session before. Trajectory is consistently deteriorating.

LEN daily VaR -4.03% means breach needs only -1.42% more — breach is virtually certain on any adverse day. LEN 3m momentum is -16.75%, worst in the theme.

AMT portfolio drawdown -3.10% with daily VaR -3.10% and negative Sharpe (-1.05) — secondary stress point.

Macro impact score of -0.65 reflects severe headwinds: restrictive Fed (3.64%), consumer sentiment collapse (-8.1 YoY to 56.6), rising unemployment (+40 bps to 4.4%). Housing demand will weaken.

Theme conviction already at 1 (minimum), but LEN position remains a ticking time bomb. Must be exited before threshold breach.

IONQ portfolio drawdown -16.07% vs 25% threshold = 64.3% consumed. Daily VaR -8.18% means breach in ~1.1 adverse days. IONQ has WORSENED from 51.6% consumed in prior sessions — a 12.7 percentage point deterioration across recent sessions.

RGTI portfolio drawdown -14.99% vs 25% threshold = 60.0% consumed. Daily VaR -8.78% — the HIGHEST single-position VaR percentage in the entire portfolio. Breach in ~1.1 adverse days.

Concentration HHI at 0.3061 exceeds the 0.25 threshold — concentrated in the most volatile names in the portfolio (IONQ 96.69% vol, RGTI 109.81% vol).

Theme 3m momentum is -18.12% with relative strength vs SPY of -21.35% — severe underperformance. Macro impact score -0.60.

Early-stage speculative theme with no revenue in a confirmed BEAR regime with 0.9% BULL transition probability. This is exactly the asset class that gets liquidated in sustained bear markets.

SMCI portfolio drawdown -6.40% vs 15% threshold = 42.7% consumed with daily VaR -7.54% — breach in ~1.1 adverse days. SMCI has negative Sharpe (-0.208), worst 6m momentum in theme (-24.77%), and 79.77% annualized volatility.

Theme 3m momentum has turned negative (-2.13%) despite positive 6m momentum (+15.06%), signaling momentum deterioration. MSFT (-17.01% 3m), AVGO (-18.71% 3m), AMD (-13.11% 3m) show broad weakness.

Theme average volatility of 44.74% is elevated. Multiple positions have daily VaR exceeding 3%: NVDA (-3.74%), AMD (-5.82%), AVGO (-4.04%), SMCI (-7.54%), ASML (-3.84%).

Macro impact score -0.55 in BEAR regime. Conviction at 4 is too high for current risk environment — the Thesis Analyst's bullish bias is overriding macro reality.

MSFT negative Sharpe (-0.186) with -3.56% portfolio drawdown and -20.03% 6m momentum — dead money in a bear market.

NVO portfolio drawdown -1.11% is modest, but 6m momentum is -34.98% and 3m momentum is -24.30% — the worst momentum of any position in the theme by far. Negative Sharpe (-0.972). Daily VaR -4.70%.

CRSP daily VaR -5.87% exceeds the 3% threshold significantly. Volatility at 63.93% is the highest in the theme.

ISRG negative Sharpe (-0.244) with -2.84% portfolio drawdown and -12.33% 3m momentum.

Theme relative strength vs SPY is -10.15% — underperforming the broad market despite GLP-1 narrative tailwind.

Conviction at 6 is the second highest in the portfolio. While GLP-1 oral delivery narrative is structurally bullish, the BEAR regime macro headwind (-0.35 impact) and broad theme weakness outside LLY/CRSP warrant caution. No conviction increase warranted.

Portfolio drawdowns are minimal across all positions (max -0.67% TLT). Theme is performing as designed in BEAR regime.

Theme avg volatility 18.54% is the lowest of any theme. Avg relative strength vs SPY +11.27% confirms defensive outperformance.

PG has negative Sharpe (-1.035) and TLT has negative Sharpe (-0.880) — monitor for position-level weakness but not theme-level concern.

Concentration HHI at 0.2066 is slightly below the 0.25 flag threshold — acceptable.

Conviction at 9 is appropriate for BEAR regime. This is the portfolio's primary risk mitigation tool and should be maintained or increased.

No theme-pair correlations exceed the 0.70 concentration risk threshold. Highest pair is ai_compute <> crypto_digital at 0.389. Inter-theme correlation risk is LOW.

However, INTRA-theme concentration is dangerous: crypto_digital HHI 0.3061 and quantum HHI 0.3061 both exceed the 0.25 threshold, meaning losses are concentrated in fewer, more volatile names within those themes.

ai_compute <> quantum correlation at 0.354 combined with ai_compute <> crypto_digital at 0.389 creates a moderate 'speculative growth' cluster — if risk-off accelerates, these three themes will sell off together. Combined they represent significant portfolio exposure.

defensive <> ai_compute correlation at -0.023 and defensive <> crypto_digital at -0.005 confirm the defensive theme provides genuine hedging value — near-zero correlation means defensive positions offset growth theme losses.

THRESHOLD BREACHED (3rd SESSION) — SMR (energy_grid): Portfolio drawdown -12.31% vs 12% threshold = 102.6% consumed. BREACH IS DEEPENING (89.0% → 100.8% → 98.3% → 102.6% across 4 sessions). Every session of inaction adds to realized loss. IMMEDIATE EXIT REQUIRED — this is a non-negotiable risk limit violation.

BREACH IMMINENT — PLTR (defense_aerospace): Portfolio drawdown -8.92% vs 10% threshold = 89.2% consumed. Daily VaR -5.69% means only -1.08% needed to breach — GUARANTEED on any adverse day. Flagged for 17+ consecutive sessions with ZERO exits. This position has been a ticking time bomb for over two weeks.

BREACH IMMINENT — LEN (real_estate): Portfolio drawdown -8.58% vs 10% threshold = 85.8% consumed. WORSENING trajectory (82.8% → 83.7% → 85.8%). Daily VaR -4.03% means only -1.42% needed to breach. Will breach on any down day.

BREACH IMMINENT — COIN (crypto_digital): Portfolio drawdown -13.77% vs 20% threshold = 68.9% consumed. Daily VaR -6.58% means breach in ~0.95 adverse days — CAN BREACH TODAY. 20th consecutive session flagged.

RAPID DETERIORATION — IONQ (quantum): Portfolio drawdown -16.07% vs 25% threshold = 64.3% consumed. WORSENED dramatically from 51.6% in prior sessions — 12.7pp deterioration. Daily VaR -8.18% means breach in ~1.1 adverse days.

RAPID DETERIORATION — RGTI (quantum): Portfolio drawdown -14.99% vs 25% threshold = 60.0% consumed. Daily VaR -8.78% (highest % VaR in portfolio). Breach in ~1.1 adverse days.

RAPID DETERIORATION — MSTR (crypto_digital): Portfolio drawdown -11.75% vs 20% threshold = 58.8% consumed. WORSENED from 51.2% in prior sessions. Daily VaR -7.53%.

MONITORING — MARA (crypto_digital): Portfolio drawdown -9.76% vs 20% threshold = 48.8% consumed. Daily VaR -8.02%. Accelerating toward breach zone.

MONITORING — CEG (energy_grid): Portfolio drawdown -7.87% vs 12% threshold = 65.6% consumed. Daily VaR -4.74%. Could breach in ~0.9 adverse days.

Summary:
PRS 0.82 — 18th CONSECUTIVE VETO. The portfolio is in a state of systemic risk discipline failure. THREE categories of positions require IMMEDIATE action:

(1) ACTIVE BREACH: SMR has been in violation of its 12% drawdown threshold for 3 consecutive sessions, now at 102.6% consumed and DEEPENING. This is not a warning — it is an active risk limit violation that has been ignored for 3 sessions. Every hour of delay increases realized loss on a position with 105% annualized volatility and -9.90% daily VaR.

(2) IMMINENT BREACHES: PLTR at 89.2% of 10% threshold (17+ sessions flagged, ZERO exits — unconscionable), LEN at 85.8% of 10% threshold (worsening trajectory), COIN at 68.9% of 20% threshold (can breach TODAY). All three positions will breach their thresholds on any single adverse day in this BEAR regime.

(3) RAPID DETERIORATION: IONQ jumped from 51.6% to 64.3% consumed, RGTI at 60.0%, MSTR worsened from 51.2% to 58.8%. The quantum and crypto themes are accelerating toward breach territory.

BEAR regime is locked at 100% confidence, 98% persistence, 0.9% BULL transition probability, 15-day duration. VIX at 25.25, unemployment rising to 4.4%, consumer sentiment collapsing to 56.6. There is NO macro catalyst for recovery.

17 prior vetoes have produced ZERO exits from breached or critical positions. The system is generating risk signals that are being systematically ignored. This is not a market problem — it is a governance problem.

MANDATORY ACTIONS before any conviction increase can be permitted: (1) EXIT SMR immediately — threshold breached for 3 sessions. (2) EXIT PLTR — 89.2% consumed, 17 sessions flagged. (3) EXIT all crypto_digital positions — 20 sessions critical, worst momentum in portfolio (-41.17% 6m), broken narrative. (4) EXIT LEN — 85.8% consumed, worsening. (5) REDUCE quantum exposure — IONQ and RGTI deteriorating rapidly toward breach. Defensive floor must remain at 9.

Summary: VETOED: PRS 0.82 exceeds 0.70 veto threshold — 18th consecutive veto. SMR has been in ACTIVE THRESHOLD BREACH for 3 consecutive sessions (now 102.6% of 12% threshold consumed, deepening from 100.8%). PLTR at 89.2% of 10% threshold consumed — flagged for 17+ sessions with ZERO exits, breach mathematically certain on any adverse day. COIN at 68.9% of 20% threshold — can breach TODAY (0.95 adverse days), 20th consecutive session flagged CRITICAL with ZERO EXITS. LEN at 85.8% of 10% threshold — worsening trajectory across 3 sessions. IONQ deteriorated from 51.6% to 64.3% consumed — quantum theme accelerating toward breach. BEAR regime locked at 100% confidence, 98% persistence, 0.9% BULL transition. 17 prior vetoes have produced ZERO position exits from breached/critical positions — this constitutes a systemic failure of risk governance. No conviction increases permitted until SMR, PLTR, LEN, and ALL crypto_digital positions are exited.. Only conviction decreases applied.

Summary: 29 orders, 9 sells, 20 buys, turnover 9.62%, regime sizing 50%