BULL regime with 98.8% confidence and 4-day persistence. Yield curve is positively sloped (52bp spread, not inverted), signaling no imminent recession. VIX at 19.12 is below the 20 elevated threshold, indicating contained market fear. Fed Funds at 3.64% represents a moderately restrictive stance, but the positive yield curve and low VIX suggest the market has priced in a stable rate environment. GDP growth remains robust at 5.36% YoY, but consumer sentiment has deteriorated significantly (56.6 vs 64.7 prior year, -12.6% YoY decline). Unemployment ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2% YoY, and jobless claims rose to 219k from 213k prior month—early signs of labor market softening. The macro backdrop is risk-on with strong growth, but consumer confidence erosion and rising unemployment warrant caution on rate-sensitive and consumer-dependent themes.

Moderately restrictive. Fed Funds at 3.64% remains above neutral (estimated ~2.5%), maintaining a tightening bias. However, the positive yield curve (52bp) and stable VIX suggest the market expects rates to hold or decline modestly. No imminent rate cuts are priced in, but the Fed is likely on pause. This stance is supportive of growth-oriented themes (AI, biotech, quantum) but headwind for rate-sensitive themes (real estate, defensive bonds).

CPI data is missing from the input, limiting direct inflation assessment. However, the positive yield curve and stable long-term rates suggest inflation expectations are anchored. The 5.36% GDP growth is nominal, implying real growth is likely 2-3% after inflation adjustment. Without fresh CPI data, assume inflation is moderately controlled but not deflationary. This supports a neutral-to-slightly-bullish outlook for growth themes and a modest headwind for commodity-linked themes (energy_grid) unless inflation re-accelerates.

Mixed. Nominal GDP growth at 5.36% YoY is strong, but consumer sentiment has collapsed 12.6% YoY to 56.6—a significant deterioration. Jobless claims rising from 213k to 219k and unemployment ticking up from 4.2% to 4.3% YoY signal early labor market softening. This divergence (strong nominal growth + weakening consumer confidence + rising unemployment) suggests growth may be decelerating into Q2-Q3. The BULL regime and positive yield curve indicate the market is not yet pricing a hard landing, but the consumer confidence collapse is a yellow flag. Growth themes (AI, biotech, quantum) remain supported by structural tailwinds, but cyclical sensitivity is rising.

Explanation: Strong tailwind. BULL regime (98.8% confidence) with low VIX (19.12) supports risk-on appetite for high-growth AI infrastructure. Robust nominal GDP growth (5.36%) and stable rates provide a supportive backdrop for capex-heavy AI spending. Prior sessions show conviction rising from 5→6→7, reflecting sustained momentum. Consumer sentiment weakness is a minor headwind (AI is not consumer-dependent), but structural AI capex cycles are macro-insensitive. Score reflects strong regime support and growth tailwinds, tempered slightly by early labor market softening.

Explanation: Significant headwind. Fed Funds at 3.64% remains restrictive for mortgage-sensitive real estate. Consumer sentiment collapsed 12.6% YoY to 56.6, directly impacting housing demand. Missing housing starts data limits precision, but jobless claims rising and unemployment ticking up signal weakening labor market, which historically precedes housing weakness. Positive yield curve (52bp) prevents recession-level distress, but the combination of high rates, collapsing consumer confidence, and rising unemployment creates a challenging environment for real estate. Prior sessions show conviction at 1 (minimal), consistent with this headwind.

Explanation: Moderate headwind. Missing ISM manufacturing employment data limits assessment of industrial demand for grid infrastructure. However, rising unemployment (4.3% vs 4.2% YoY) and jobless claims (219k vs 213k) suggest manufacturing activity may be softening, reducing near-term grid capex demand. Inflation expectations appear anchored (positive yield curve, stable long-term rates), limiting commodity tailwinds. AI power demand remains a structural tailwind, but macro conditions are not currently supportive. Prior sessions show conviction at 1 with repeated catastrophic risk flags on SMR position (unrelated to macro, but reflects theme weakness). Score reflects macro headwinds, not fundamental energy demand.

Explanation: Modest tailwind. Defense spending is relatively macro-insensitive and driven by geopolitical factors. Prior sessions (cs_20260414_123000) flagged escalating Iran blockade and $1.5T budget target as structural tailwinds. BULL regime and low VIX support risk-on sentiment, which historically benefits defense equities. However, rising unemployment and consumer sentiment collapse create fiscal pressure (potential budget constraints), and prior sessions show conviction declining from 4→2, reflecting idiosyncratic PLTR risks (Anthropic competition) rather than macro headwinds. Score reflects modest geopolitical tailwind offset by fiscal uncertainty from labor market softening.

Explanation: Moderate tailwind. Quantum is a high-risk, high-upside growth theme that benefits from BULL regime (98.8% confidence) and low VIX (19.12), supporting risk-on appetite for early-stage tech. Robust nominal GDP growth (5.36%) and stable rates provide a supportive macro backdrop for venture-stage quantum capex. However, consumer sentiment weakness and rising unemployment create headwinds for consumer-facing quantum applications. Prior sessions show conviction at 1 (minimal), but this reflects portfolio positioning, not macro conditions. Score reflects growth-theme tailwinds tempered by early labor market softening.

Explanation: Strong tailwind. Biotech benefits from BULL regime (98.8% confidence) and low VIX (19.12), supporting risk-on appetite for high-growth biotech. Prior sessions show conviction rising from 2→3→4→6, reflecting strong momentum and the Novo Nordisk-OpenAI partnership catalyst (cs_20260414_143000). GLP-1 and aging population tailwinds are macro-insensitive structural drivers. Consumer sentiment weakness is a minor headwind (biotech is not consumer-discretionary), but healthcare spending is relatively recession-resistant. Rising unemployment may increase demand for cost-effective biotech solutions. Score reflects strong structural tailwinds and regime support.

Explanation: Moderate tailwind. Crypto correlates with liquidity conditions and risk appetite. BULL regime (98.8% confidence) and low VIX (19.12) support risk-on sentiment, which is a tailwind for crypto. Moderately restrictive Fed Funds (3.64%) and positive yield curve (52bp) suggest rates are stabilizing, reducing near-term liquidity headwinds. However, consumer sentiment collapse (56.6 vs 64.7 YoY) and rising unemployment (4.3% vs 4.2% YoY) create headwinds for retail-driven crypto demand. Prior sessions show conviction at 1 with elevated risk flags on COIN position (coverage ratio 1.99x, fragile). Score reflects regime tailwinds offset by consumer weakness and retail demand uncertainty.

Explanation: Mild headwind. Defensive themes (consumer staples, gold, bonds) are typically favored in risk-off environments, but the BULL regime (98.8% confidence) and low VIX (19.12) create a headwind for defensive positioning. However, consumer sentiment collapse (56.6 vs 64.7 YoY) and rising unemployment (4.3% vs 4.2% YoY) are early recession signals that could support defensive demand. Moderately restrictive Fed Funds (3.64%) create headwinds for bond-heavy defensive portfolios. Score reflects the tension between strong BULL regime (headwind for defensive) and early labor market softening (tailwind for defensive), with regime dominance slightly outweighing labor concerns.

Consumer sentiment collapse: UMCSENT at 56.6 vs 64.7 prior year (-12.6% YoY) is the sharpest deterioration in the dataset. This signals potential demand destruction in Q2-Q3, which could trigger a growth recession despite strong nominal GDP. If consumer sentiment falls below 50, recession probability spikes materially.

Labor market softening: Unemployment rose from 4.2% to 4.3% YoY, and jobless claims increased from 213k to 219k month-over-month. While not yet alarming, this divergence from strong GDP growth suggests the labor market is decelerating. If claims exceed 250k or unemployment reaches 4.5%+, recession risk escalates sharply.

Yield curve re-inversion risk: Current spread is 52bp (positive), but if Fed holds rates at 3.64% while 2Y yields rise (due to inflation re-acceleration or growth concerns), the curve could re-invert. Historically, yield curve inversion + rising unemployment = 80%+ recession probability within 12 months.

Missing inflation data: CPI data is absent from the input, limiting direct inflation assessment. If CPI re-accelerates above 3.5% YoY, the Fed may be forced to hold rates higher for longer, creating headwinds for growth themes and real estate. Conversely, if CPI falls sharply, it could trigger rate cuts, supporting real estate and defensive themes.

VIX stability masking tail risk: VIX at 19.12 is benign, but the BULL regime confidence (98.8%) and 4-day persistence suggest complacency. A single geopolitical shock (Iran escalation, Taiwan tensions) or earnings miss could trigger a VIX spike to 25-30, causing rapid regime shift to NEUTRAL or BEAR and unwinding of risk-on positioning.

Summary: The macro environment is BULL-regime-dominated with strong nominal growth (5.36% GDP) and low volatility (VIX 19.12), supporting risk-on themes (AI, biotech, quantum, crypto). However, a critical divergence is emerging: consumer sentiment has collapsed 12.6% YoY to 56.6, unemployment is rising (4.3% vs 4.2% YoY), and jobless claims are ticking up (219k vs 213k), signaling early labor market softening despite robust headline growth. This creates a bifurcated macro backdrop: structural growth themes (AI, biotech) remain well-supported by BULL regime and low VIX, while cyclical and rate-sensitive themes (real estate, defensive) face headwinds from high Fed Funds (3.64%), collapsing consumer confidence, and rising unemployment. The key risk is that consumer sentiment weakness and labor market softening could trigger a growth recession in Q2-Q3, which would rapidly shift the regime from BULL to NEUTRAL/BEAR and reverse the current risk-on positioning. Macro conditions are currently tailwind for growth themes and headwind for rate-sensitive and defensive themes, but the deteriorating consumer backdrop warrants elevated vigilance for regime transition signals.

AMD EPYC Powers AI Agent Workloads As CPUs Gain Data Center Share — 41% Server CPU Revenue Share

Chip Stocks On Pace for Longest Win Streak Since 2017 — SOX Up 9 Consecutive Days

Hormuz Crisis Triggers Chipmakers' Best Rally Since 2002: 9 Stocks Gaining Up To 60% Since War Began

ARM Holdings Positioned as Biggest Winner in AI Inference Economy — Surpassing Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom

Microsoft Takes Over Stargate Data Center From OpenAI in Norway — Bloomberg

NVIDIA's AI Factory Vision: Full-Stack Infrastructure Push Aims to Deepen Data Center Dominance

Software Stocks Finally Joining Tech Rally — iShares Tech-Software ETF Best Two-Day Run Since April 2025

Super Micro Extends Edge AI Reach With New AMD EPYC 4005 Systems for Retail, Healthcare, Branch Offices

Iran Nuclear Deal Prediction Markets Odds Surge as Trump Touts Call 'From the Right People'

U.S. Military Adopts Siege Strategy — Blockade of Iranian Ports Added to Selective Hormuz Blockade

Counter-Drone 'Drone-Killing' Tech Is Defense Sector's Fastest Grower — $20B Market Most Investors Missing

Mercury Systems Up 8.9% After SDA Tranche 3 Tracking Layer Win — Expanding Across All Four Tranches

L3Harris Missile Solutions Spinout Backed by $1B DoW Preferred Equity — 2028 Targets Refreshed

Builder Stocks Jump on Cease-Fire — Homebuilder ETF Up 6.4%, Biggest Gain Since July 2025

D.R. Horton Faces Target Cuts from Wells Fargo and Barclays Amid Housing Weakness

D.R. Horton Faces Plumbing Claims — Georgia Homeowners File Arbitration Over Defective PEX Pipes

DHI Expands Credit Facility to $4B — Financial Flexibility as Builders Navigate Headwinds

Toll Brothers Outperforming Peers as Homebuilder Stocks Show Signs of Stabilizing

NextEra Energy Price Target Raised $8 — Most Valuable Utility in World at $196B Market Cap

Constellation Energy (CEG) Down 26.5% in Six Months — Three Mile Island Timing and Data Center Deal Gaps Weigh

Duke Energy Ramps Up Solar, Wind, Storage Expansion — Reinforcing Long-Term Grid Reliability

Trillium Asset Management Urges NextEra Shareholders to Support Paris-Aligned Climate Transition Report

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Builds Early 2026 Momentum on Surging Bookings, Major Deals, and Acquisition

10 Stocks for World Quantum Day — From Pure-Play to Blue-Chip Coverage Expands

IBM Likely to Post Q1 Beat, Morgan Stanley Says — Confluent Deal Boosts Outlook

IBM Pays $17M Fine to End DOJ Suit Over DEI Programs

Revolution Medicines Soars 39% on Positive Phase 3 Pancreatic Cancer Trial Results

Johnson & Johnson Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates — Cancer Drug Revenue Grows, Dividend Hiked

AbbVie Reports Phase 2 Ovarian Cancer Data and Signs $745M Pain Pipeline Deal with Chinese Biopharma Haisco

Simply Wall St. / Pharmaceutical Technology

AbbVie Neuroscience Franchise — Botox and Vraylar Expected to Jump 22% in Q1

MARA Holdings Cuts 15% of Workforce, Pivots from Bitcoin Mining to AI Compute Infrastructure

MARA Sold 15,133 Bitcoins — Bitcoin Down 43% From ATH of $126,080; Miners Selling to Escape Margin Compression

Strategy (MSTR) Bitcoin Reserves Dwarf Debt — Solvency Strengthening Despite BTC Volatility

Gold Posts Third Weekly Gain — Geopolitics, Central Bank Buying, Weaker Dollar Support Despite Volatility

Gold Falls Nearly 10% as Banks Maintain $5,800 Price Outlook — Central Bank Demand and Fed Cuts Underpin Long-Term

Jamie Dimon Warns: US Economy Resilient But 'Significant Risks' Building Fast

US PPI Rose Less Than Expected in March — Dollar Weakened, Gold Moved Higher

Microsoft seizes Stargate data center from OpenAI in Norway — OpenAI-MSFT fracture accelerating into ASSET SEIZURE territory, materially evolving from prior session's flag

SOX index 9-day win streak, longest since 2017 — Hormuz crisis paradoxically turbocharging chip demand narrative

AMD EPYC at 41%+ server CPU revenue share with hyperscalers deploying for AI agent orchestration layers

ARM Holdings emerging as inference-era winner narrative gaining mainstream traction

Software stocks joining the rally — 'AI kills SaaS' overcorrection thesis from prior session now broadly confirmed

The Microsoft-Stargate asset takeover is the session's most significant narrative evolution. This is no longer a 'partnership fracture' story — Microsoft physically seizing OpenAI's Norway data center represents a structural power consolidation that the market has not yet priced into MSFT's AI infrastructure dominance narrative. The prior session flagged OpenAI-MSFT tension; this is the first concrete asset-level manifestation. Simultaneously, the inference economy narrative is bifurcating from the training/GPU narrative: ARM is emerging as the inference winner, AMD as the agentic CPU winner, and NVDA as the full-stack 'AI factory' winner. Three distinct sub-narratives are forming within ai_compute — the market is still pricing this as a monolithic theme.

Builder stocks jumped 6.4% on cease-fire news — rate sensitivity confirmed as primary driver

DHI faces dual headwinds: analyst target cuts from Wells Fargo/Barclays AND plumbing litigation risk

Toll Brothers outperforming peers — luxury segment showing relative resilience

DHI credit facility expansion to $4B signals defensive balance sheet positioning by management

Iran nuclear deal prediction market odds surging — potential mortgage rate tailwind if peace materializes

CEG down 26.5% in six months — Three Mile Island timing delays and data center deal gaps creating persistent underperformance

NEE price target raised $8 but stock dipped -1.89% on the session — divergence between analyst optimism and price action

Trillium climate proposal adds ESG governance overhang to NEE ahead of May 21 annual meeting

Duke Energy renewable expansion positive but incremental — no new AI power demand catalyst this session

SMR position remains catastrophically breached per risk flags — zero fundamental recovery signal

Iran nuclear deal prediction market odds surging — potential de-escalation risk to defense spending narrative

Counter-drone 'drone-killing' tech identified as $20B fastest-growing defense segment — most underpriced sub-narrative

Mercury Systems +8.9% on SDA Tranche 3 win — space-based missile tracking constellation expanding

L3Harris missile spinout backed by $1B DoW preferred equity — procurement cycle deepening

U.S.-Iran blockade of Strait of Hormuz — active wartime procurement narrative from prior session intact but peace talks re-emerging as tail risk

D-Wave (QBTS) surging bookings, major deals, and strategic acquisition — commercial momentum building

World Quantum Day coverage expanding mainstream awareness — market structure positive

IBM likely Q1 beat with Confluent deal boosting hybrid cloud/AI pipeline — quantum-adjacent positive

IBM $17M DEI settlement — minor idiosyncratic noise, not quantum-relevant

Software stocks joining rally — IBM and Palantir quantum-adjacent names benefiting from broader tech momentum

Revolution Medicines +39% on positive Phase 3 pancreatic cancer trial — high-conviction clinical catalyst, M&A optionality flagged by RBC

Johnson & Johnson Q1 beat with cancer drug revenue growth and dividend hike — large-cap anchor performing

AbbVie Phase 2 ovarian cancer data + $745M Haisco pain pipeline deal — pipeline restocking trend accelerating

AbbVie neuroscience franchise (Botox, Vraylar) expected +22% Q1 — multiple growth vectors confirmed

Prior session's Novo Nordisk-OpenAI AI pharma partnership narrative continues to underpin structural bullish thesis

MARA pivoting from Bitcoin mining to AI compute — 15% workforce cut, 15,133 BTC sold; mining business model structurally broken

Bitcoin still 43% below ATH of $126,080 — post-halving margin compression destroying miner economics

MSTR solvency narrative holding (BTC reserves dwarf debt) but capital strategy sustainability questioned

Iran cease-fire/peace talk odds rising — risk-on bounce potential but crypto has failed to recover prior rallies

COIN drawdown improving but still fragile per risk flags — 13th+ consecutive session above 65% threshold consumption

MARA's pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI compute is a structural narrative shift for the crypto_digital theme that is NOT being priced as a crypto story — it is being absorbed into the AI compute narrative. This represents a canary signal: the most operationally intensive crypto-native equity is abandoning the mining model entirely. Combined with multi-session Bitcoin underperformance (43% below ATH), the crypto_digital theme's narrative is bifurcating: MSTR (pure BTC treasury play) is holding its narrative, while the mining/infrastructure sub-theme is in structural collapse. This is a materially new development — prior sessions flagged MARA weakness but not the explicit AI pivot with workforce restructuring.

Gold third consecutive weekly gain — geopolitics, central bank buying, dollar weakness providing floor

Gold fell nearly 10% intraweek but banks maintain $5,800 price outlook — long-term thesis intact, short-term volatile

US PPI below expectations — inflation cooling narrative mildly supportive of rate cut expectations

Jamie Dimon 'significant risks building' warning — macro uncertainty supporting defensive allocation

J&J Q1 beat with dividend hike — defensive large-cap health anchor performing

GEOPOLITICAL PIVOT RISK: Iran nuclear deal prediction market odds surging simultaneously with active blockade — creates binary outcome risk across defense_aerospace (long), energy_grid (oil price sensitivity), crypto_digital (risk-on bounce), and real_estate (mortgage rate tailwind). The market is pricing BOTH escalation AND de-escalation simultaneously across different asset classes — a rare divergence that will resolve violently in one direction.

AI INFRASTRUCTURE CONSOLIDATION: Microsoft seizing Stargate Norway data center + NVDA AI Factory push + AMD EPYC hyperscaler adoption = the AI compute theme is consolidating around a small number of vertically integrated players. This is a market_structure shift that benefits MSFT, NVDA, AMD but creates existential risk for OpenAI-dependent pure-plays and smaller AI infrastructure names.

MINING-TO-AI MIGRATION: MARA's explicit pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI compute (workforce cuts, BTC sales, HPC infrastructure) mirrors the broader energy-intensive compute migration. This cross-theme pattern connects crypto_digital (bearish for miners) to ai_compute (incremental demand signal) and energy_grid (data center power demand reinforcement).

BIOTECH EARNINGS MOMENTUM: Revolution Medicines Phase 3 success + J&J Q1 beat + AbbVie pipeline expansion = biotech_health is delivering across multiple vectors simultaneously (clinical, commercial, M&A). This is the strongest multi-catalyst session for the theme in this series and reinforces the prior session's Novo-OpenAI AI pharma structural shift.

CHIP RALLY PARADOX: The Hormuz crisis that is suppressing energy_grid and pressuring real_estate is simultaneously the catalyst for the SOX's best 9-day run since 2017. Defense spending acceleration is pulling forward semiconductor demand for military applications, creating a counter-intuitive positive feedback loop between geopolitical risk and ai_compute performance.

RATE SENSITIVITY BIFURCATION: Below-consensus PPI data (inflation cooling) is mildly positive for real_estate (mortgage rates) and defensive (gold, bonds) but the Iran peace deal probability surge is a more powerful near-term driver of the same rate-sensitive assets — two independent catalysts pointing in the same direction for rate-sensitive themes.

Summary:
This session is defined by two narrative developments that are materially evolving from prior flags, and one new structural signal the market has not yet priced.

**The dominant story: Microsoft-Stargate asset seizure.** The prior two sessions flagged the OpenAI-MSFT fracture as a narrative tension. Today it crossed a threshold — Microsoft physically taking over OpenAI's Norway Stargate data center is no longer a partnership dispute, it is an asset consolidation event. The market continues to rally MSFT as an AI infrastructure play, which is correct, but the implications for OpenAI's independence and the broader AI alliance structure are not yet priced. This is the session's highest-conviction narrative signal for ai_compute.

**The crypto structural break: MARA's AI pivot.** MARA selling 15,133 BTC and cutting 15% of its workforce to pivot to AI compute is the clearest signal yet that the Bitcoin mining business model is in structural collapse at current BTC prices (43% below ATH). This is NOT a crypto recovery story — it is a mining industry abandonment story. The crypto_digital theme's narrative is now bifurcated: MSTR (BTC treasury) holds its thesis; miners are exiting the model entirely.

**The geopolitical binary.** Iran nuclear deal prediction market odds are surging simultaneously with an active Hormuz blockade. This creates a rare simultaneous pricing of escalation and de-escalation across defense_aerospace, energy_grid, real_estate, and crypto_digital. The resolution of this binary is the single largest near-term risk to cross-theme positioning.

**Biotech continues to deliver.** Revolution Medicines +39% on Phase 3 pancreatic cancer success, J&J Q1 beat with dividend hike, and AbbVie's dual pipeline catalyst confirm the prior session's elevated conviction in biotech_health. The AI-pharma structural narrative (Novo-OpenAI, flagged last session) is the backdrop; this session adds clinical and commercial confirmation.

**Chip rally paradox holds.** The SOX's 9-day win streak — its longest since 2017 — is being driven in part by the same geopolitical crisis suppressing energy and real estate. Defense semiconductor demand is the under-appreciated driver. The inference economy sub-narrative (ARM as winner) is gaining traction and represents the next internal bifurcation within ai_compute that the market has not yet fully priced.

Narrative shift confirmed: Microsoft physically seizing OpenAI's Norway Stargate data center is an asset-consolidation event the market has not fully priced into MSFT's AI infrastructure dominance narrative. SOX 9-day win streak (longest since 2017), AMD EPYC at 41%+ server CPU share, ARM emerging as inference-era winner, and NVDA's full-stack 'AI Factory' push create three distinct sub-narratives all pointing bullish. Macro tailwind is strong (impact score 0.75, BULL regime 98.8%). Quant confirms: theme avg 6m momentum +5.17%, relative strength vs SPY +4.66%. TSM (Sharpe 2.598), GOOG (2.525), ASML (2.174), AMD (1.904), AVGO (1.877) all show strong risk-adjusted returns. Portfolio drawdowns are near-zero across all positions. Prior sessions show conviction rising 5→6→7 on consecutive accepted deltas — the narrative has now escalated to asset-seizure territory, justifying a further +1.

3m momentum is negative (-5.04% avg), with MSFT (-18.19%), AVGO (-20.72%), and META (-5.98%) showing near-term weakness. SMCI remains a volatility outlier (77.18% vol, Sharpe 0.091). Theme avg volatility is elevated at 40.68%. The inference-economy bifurcation within ai_compute means the theme is no longer monolithic — concentration risk is rising as winners diverge from laggards. Consumer sentiment collapse (-12.6% YoY) could slow enterprise AI capex at the margin. Conviction at 8 leaves limited upside room.

Builder stocks jumped 6.4% on cease-fire news, confirming rate sensitivity as the primary driver. Iran nuclear deal prediction market odds surging could deliver a mortgage rate tailwind if peace materializes. Toll Brothers showing relative resilience in the luxury segment. DHI's $4B credit facility expansion signals management confidence in balance sheet durability. Below-consensus PPI data (inflation cooling) is a mild positive for rate-sensitive real estate. SPG and O are showing positive momentum (6m: +2.38%, +6.67%) and positive relative strength vs SPY.

Macro impact score is -0.55 — a significant headwind. Fed Funds at 3.64% remains restrictive for mortgage-sensitive housing. Consumer sentiment collapsed 12.6% YoY to 56.6, directly suppressing housing demand. Theme avg 6m momentum is -11.24% and 3m is -6.40%. Relative strength vs SPY is -7.02% — the theme is broadly underperforming. DHI faces dual headwinds: analyst target cuts from Wells Fargo/Barclays AND plumbing litigation. LEN and RKT have catastrophic 6m momentum (-30.82%, -32.99%). Prior sessions show conviction floored at 1 with repeated contested thesis deltas vetoed by risk. No narrative shift detected. Holding at 1 is the correct call.

NEE price target raised $8 with strong 6m momentum (+29.51%) and positive relative strength vs SPY (+11.46%). GEV is the standout performer: +28.69% 6m momentum, +52.74% relative strength vs SPY, Sharpe 2.557 — the best risk-adjusted name in the theme. Duke Energy renewable expansion reinforces long-term grid reliability. AI power demand remains a structural tailwind. UEC Sharpe at 1.744 shows uranium exposure is generating returns. Below-consensus PPI mildly supports energy infrastructure margins.

SMR remains a catastrophic risk position: portfolio drawdown -13.13% vs 12% threshold (109.4% consumed), 6m momentum -67.53%, vol 103.63%, Sharpe 0.061, daily VaR -9.78%. This is the 57th+ consecutive session in breach — the position is a structural drag on the entire theme's conviction ceiling. CEG is down 26.5% in six months with persistent data center deal gaps. FSLR has -28.13% 3m momentum. Theme avg 3m momentum is -11.58%. Macro impact score is -0.40. No narrative shift detected. Until SMR is exited, conviction cannot rise above 1 — the risk flag is the binding constraint.

Quant momentum is the strongest in the portfolio: theme avg 6m +20.01%, 3m +14.93%. LMT leads with +36.03% 3m momentum, NOC at +31.01%, LHX at +23.84%. Narrative score is 0.55 with multiple reinforcing catalysts: counter-drone $20B fastest-growing segment, Mercury Systems +8.9% on SDA Tranche 3 win, L3Harris missile spinout backed by $1B DoW preferred equity. The active wartime procurement narrative (Hormuz blockade) established in prior sessions remains intact. Macro impact score +0.35. BULL regime supports risk-on defense equities. Prior session (cs_20260414_123000) established the 'active wartime procurement cycle' narrative shift — this session's catalysts confirm and extend it. The contested thesis delta from prior sessions was blocked by PLTR's catastrophic drawdown, not by defense fundamentals. If PLTR has been reduced (portfolio drawdown improved to -15.11% from -17.70% two sessions ago), the path to +1 is clearer.

PLTR remains the critical risk: portfolio drawdown -15.11% vs 10% threshold (151.1% consumed), 57th+ consecutive session in breach. This single position has blocked every prior thesis delta for defense_aerospace. Iran nuclear deal prediction market odds surging is a genuine de-escalation tail risk that could compress defense spending narratives rapidly. Theme relative strength vs SPY is -0.81% (barely negative), dragged down by PLTR (-23.59% vs SPY). GD is also underperforming (-6.83% vs SPY). Concentration HHI at 0.1834 is elevated. The thesis delta is contingent on PLTR exit progress — if PLTR remains at full weight, Risk Sentinel will likely veto again.

D-Wave (QBTS) surging bookings, major deals, and strategic acquisition signal commercial momentum building. World Quantum Day coverage expanding mainstream awareness. IBM likely Q1 beat with Confluent deal boosting hybrid cloud/AI pipeline. Software stocks joining the broader tech rally benefits IBM and quantum-adjacent names. Macro tailwind score +0.50 with BULL regime supporting risk-on appetite for early-stage tech. GOOG (Sharpe 2.525) and RGTI (Sharpe 1.044) show pockets of risk-adjusted strength.

Quant signals are deeply negative: theme avg 6m momentum -8.48%, 3m momentum -25.43% — the worst 3m momentum in the portfolio. Relative strength vs SPY is -21.56% — catastrophically underperforming. IONQ (-30.87% vs SPY) and RGTI (-32.95% vs SPY) are in freefall. Volatility is extreme: IONQ 93.18%, RGTI 106.97%. Max drawdowns are severe: IONQ -67.61%, RGTI -77.10%. No narrative shift detected. IBM $17M DEI settlement adds minor idiosyncratic noise. Concentration HHI at 0.3061 is the highest in the portfolio alongside crypto. Prior sessions show conviction floored at 1 with negative deltas absorbed at the floor. No fundamental recovery signal justifies a move above 1.

Biotech is delivering across ALL vectors simultaneously this session: Revolution Medicines +39% on Phase 3 pancreatic cancer success (M&A optionality flagged by RBC), J&J Q1 beat with cancer drug revenue growth and dividend hike, AbbVie Phase 2 ovarian cancer data + $745M Haisco pain pipeline deal, AbbVie neuroscience (Botox, Vraylar) expected +22% Q1. Narrative score 0.70 with macro impact score 0.70 — the strongest dual-signal theme after ai_compute. The Novo Nordisk-OpenAI AI pharma structural narrative (prior session) is the backdrop; this session adds clinical and commercial confirmation. Macro: BULL regime, low VIX, healthcare spending is recession-resistant. Prior sessions show conviction rising 2→3→4→6 — the trajectory is intact.

Quant signals are the key caution: theme avg 6m momentum -1.63%, 3m momentum -11.73%. Relative strength vs SPY is -13.74% — the theme is underperforming the market despite strong narrative. NVO is the primary drag: -30.82% 6m momentum, -34.33% vs SPY, Sharpe -0.818, portfolio drawdown -0.0% (recently entered or reset). ISRG Sharpe -0.181. CRSP and LLY have significant max drawdowns (-42.25%, -30.40%). ABBV portfolio drawdown -4.40%. The divergence between strong narrative and weak price momentum is a yellow flag — the market may not yet be rewarding the thesis. Conviction at 6 already reflects prior session's +2 delta; holding here while quant catches up is prudent.

BULL regime (98.8% confidence) and low VIX (19.12) support risk-on sentiment as a macro tailwind for crypto. MSTR solvency narrative holding (BTC reserves dwarf debt). Iran cease-fire/peace talk odds rising could trigger a risk-on bounce. XYZ showing relative resilience (-6.01% 3m momentum vs theme avg -19.60%). Macro impact score +0.45. COIN portfolio drawdown improved to -7.61% from -13.00% two sessions ago — the risk profile is healing.

Narrative shift is BEARISH: MARA's explicit pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI compute (15% workforce cut, 15,133 BTC sold) is a structural narrative break — the most operationally intensive crypto-native equity is abandoning the mining model. Bitcoin is 43% below ATH of $126,080. Theme avg 6m momentum -39.53%, 3m -19.60% — the worst momentum profile in the portfolio. Relative strength vs SPY -12.90%. All tickers have negative relative strength. MSTR Sharpe -0.962. COIN portfolio drawdown -7.61% vs 20% threshold (38.1% consumed) — still within one bad day of escalation (VaR -6.48%). The narrative shift is bearish, macro tailwinds are not translating to price recovery, and the mining sub-theme is in structural collapse. Conviction stays at 1.

Quant signals are the strongest in the portfolio for a non-growth theme: theme avg 6m momentum +16.01%, 3m +9.85%. Relative strength vs SPY +4.79% — outperforming the market. JNJ is the standout: Sharpe 2.491, +35.64% 6m momentum, +12.79% vs SPY, Q1 beat with dividend hike. GLD: Sharpe 1.428, +37.39% 6m momentum, third consecutive weekly gain on geopolitics and central bank buying. KO +6.92% vs SPY. Theme volatility is the lowest in the portfolio at 17.69%. Jamie Dimon's 'significant risks building' warning and consumer sentiment collapse support defensive allocation. Below-consensus PPI mildly supports gold and bonds.

BULL regime (98.8% confidence) and low VIX (19.12) are structural headwinds for defensive positioning — risk-on environments reduce the premium for defensive assets. Macro impact score is -0.25. PG Sharpe -1.083, TLT Sharpe -0.476 — bonds and consumer staples are underperforming within the theme. Gold fell nearly 10% intraweek despite the weekly gain, signaling high short-term volatility. No narrative shift detected. Conviction at 8 is elevated for a BULL regime — the structural bias of the system is bullish, and holding defensive at 8 while growth themes are performing is an opportunity cost. A -1 delta to 7 reflects the BULL regime headwind while preserving the hedge value given consumer sentiment deterioration and rising unemployment.

ai_compute: The Microsoft-Stargate Norway asset seizure is the session's highest-conviction narrative signal — a partnership fracture has crossed into physical asset consolidation, which the market has not yet fully priced into MSFT's AI infrastructure dominance narrative. Combined with SOX's 9-day win streak, AMD EPYC's 41%+ server CPU share, ARM's emergence as the inference-era winner, and near-zero portfolio drawdowns across all positions, the theme warrants a +1 delta to conviction 8. The inference economy sub-narrative bifurcation (ARM/AMD/NVDA as distinct winners) is the next internal catalyst the market has not yet priced.

PLTR (defense_aerospace) remains the portfolio's single most dangerous position: portfolio drawdown -15.11% vs 10% threshold (151.1% consumed), 57th+ consecutive session in breach. This position has blocked every prior defense_aerospace thesis delta and continues to consume risk budget that prevents the portfolio from expressing the genuinely strong defense procurement narrative. Until PLTR is exited, the defense theme's conviction ceiling is artificially suppressed. Secondary risk: SMR (energy_grid) at -13.13% portfolio drawdown vs 12% threshold (109.4% consumed) — another multi-session catastrophic breach that is the binding constraint on energy_grid conviction. Both positions must be exited to unlock the portfolio's ability to express its strongest theses.

Summary:
This session presents a bifurcated signal landscape: two themes warrant conviction changes (ai_compute +1, defensive -1), while the remaining six themes are held at current levels by either binding risk constraints or conflicting signal profiles.

**AI Compute (7→8, +1):** The Microsoft-Stargate asset seizure is a genuine narrative escalation from prior sessions' 'partnership fracture' flag — physical asset consolidation is a qualitatively different event. Combined with the SOX's 9-day win streak, AMD's hyperscaler dominance, ARM's inference-era emergence, and near-zero portfolio drawdowns, the macro-narrative-quant triple alignment justifies a further +1. The inference economy bifurcation (ARM/AMD/NVDA as distinct sub-narratives) is the next unpriced catalyst.

**Defensive (8→7, -1):** The BULL regime (98.8% confidence) and low VIX (19.12) are structural headwinds for defensive positioning at conviction 8. While JNJ's Q1 beat, GLD's third weekly gain, and consumer sentiment deterioration all support the hedge value, holding defensive at maximum conviction in a confirmed BULL regime is an opportunity cost. A -1 delta preserves the hedge while acknowledging the regime environment.

**Defense Aerospace (2→3, +1):** The strongest quant momentum in the portfolio (6m +20.01%, 3m +14.93%) combined with a 0.55 narrative score and active wartime procurement catalysts (Mercury Systems SDA win, L3Harris spinout, counter-drone $20B segment) justify a +1 proposal. However, PLTR's catastrophic drawdown (-15.11%, 151.1% threshold consumed, 57th consecutive session in breach) is the binding constraint — Risk Sentinel will likely contest this delta again. The thesis is sound; the position management is the problem.

**Biotech (held at 6):** Strong narrative (0.70) and macro (0.70) scores, but quant divergence (-13.74% relative strength vs SPY, -11.73% 3m momentum) warrants holding the prior session's +2 delta gain rather than pressing further. The market needs to catch up to the narrative before another conviction increase is warranted.

**Energy Grid, Real Estate, Quantum, Crypto (all held at 1):** Binding constraints in each case — SMR catastrophic drawdown for energy_grid, macro headwinds and negative momentum for real_estate, catastrophic quant signals for quantum, and a bearish narrative shift (MARA mining abandonment) combined with persistent negative momentum for crypto_digital.

3m theme momentum has turned negative (-5.04%) despite BULL regime — divergence from conviction 7 (highest in portfolio). AVGO (-20.72% 3m), MSFT (-18.19% 3m), and AMD (-12.66% 3m) show broad deterioration beneath headline strength.

Theme avg volatility 40.68% is elevated for a conviction-7 position commanding max 25% allocation. SMCI daily VaR -6.40% and AMD daily VaR -4.24% both exceed the 3% threshold significantly.

SMCI Sharpe 0.091 and MSFT Sharpe -0.013 are effectively zero — dead weight in the basket. SMCI has -66.18% historical max drawdown, signaling catastrophic tail risk.

Portfolio drawdowns are near-zero (excellent entry timing), but the negative 3m momentum trend suggests the easy gains may be behind us. If 3m momentum continues deteriorating, conviction 7 becomes increasingly misaligned with price action.

Theme avg 6m momentum -11.24% and 3m momentum -6.40% — persistent downtrend. Relative strength vs SPY is -7.02% (underperforming market).

LEN portfolio drawdown -4.19% vs 10% max_drawdown threshold = 41.9% consumed. AMT at -3.34% = 33.4% consumed. With LEN daily VaR -3.52%, a single bad day pushes LEN to -7.71% (77.1% consumed).

RKT daily VaR -4.90% is extreme for a moderate risk tolerance theme. RKT 6m momentum -32.99%, 3m momentum -26.96% — catastrophic trend.

Macro headwinds are severe: Fed Funds 3.64% restrictive for mortgages, consumer sentiment collapsed -12.6% YoY to 56.6, unemployment rising. This is the most macro-vulnerable theme in the portfolio.

LEN Sharpe -0.423, AMT Sharpe -1.008, SHW Sharpe -0.172 — three negative Sharpe positions in a 10-stock basket.

🚨 SMR portfolio drawdown -13.13% vs 12% max_drawdown threshold = 109.4% consumed — STILL IN BREACH after 57+ sessions of catastrophic flags. This is the 58th session demanding exit. Daily VaR -9.78% means a single adverse day could push to -22.91%. Vol 103.63%, Sharpe 0.061, 6m momentum -67.53%. ZERO recovery signal.

Theme avg volatility 59.72% is the second-highest in the portfolio — extreme for a 'moderate' risk tolerance theme. This is a mismatch: moderate risk tolerance should not carry 60% annualized vol.

Theme avg 3m momentum -11.58% with negative relative strength vs SPY (-3.63%). CEG (-20.29% 3m), FSLR (-28.13% 3m), SMR (-44.39% 3m) — three of six positions in severe downtrends.

NEE portfolio drawdown -3.79% vs 12% threshold = 31.6% consumed. CEG at -2.91% = 24.3% consumed. Multiple positions eroding simultaneously.

FSLR daily VaR -4.57%, UEC daily VaR -7.05%, SMR daily VaR -9.78% — three positions with VaR exceeding 3% threshold in a six-stock basket.

🚨 PLTR portfolio drawdown -15.11% vs 10% max_drawdown threshold = 151.1% consumed — 58TH CONSECUTIVE SESSION IN BREACH. WORSENED from -14.36% last session (+0.75pp). Now 51.1% beyond maximum allowed loss. Daily VaR -5.82% means a single adverse day pushes to -20.93% (209.3% of threshold). IMMEDIATE EXIT IS THE ONLY ACCEPTABLE ACTION.

PLTR 3m momentum -19.51%, relative strength vs SPY -23.59% — severe underperformance while the rest of the defense basket rallies (LMT +36.03% 3m, NOC +31.01% 3m). This is pure idiosyncratic risk, not sector weakness.

GD portfolio drawdown -4.84% vs 10% threshold = 48.4% consumed. LMT at -4.31% = 43.1% consumed. NOC at -3.67% = 36.7% consumed. Multiple positions approaching half-consumed thresholds simultaneously.

PLTR vol 53.75% is 2x the theme average of the other 5 names (~24.6%). It is a volatility outlier dragging the entire theme's risk profile.

Conviction was reduced from 4→2 last session, which was appropriate, but PLTR remains in the basket. The position-level breach demands exit, not just conviction reduction.

HHI concentration at 0.3061 exceeds the 0.25 threshold — concentration risk flag. The basket is only 4 stocks, with GOOG dominating risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe 2.525 vs IONQ 0.701, RGTI 1.044, IBM 0.026).

Theme avg 3m momentum -25.43% — the worst 3m momentum of ANY theme in the portfolio. IONQ -37.24% 3m, RGTI -39.84% 3m — pure-play quantum names are in freefall.

Theme avg volatility 65.23% is the highest in the portfolio. IONQ daily VaR -7.99%, RGTI daily VaR -8.78% — both massively exceed the 3% threshold.

Relative strength vs SPY is -21.56% — the worst of any theme. This theme is being aggressively sold relative to the market.

IBM portfolio drawdown -3.35% vs 25% threshold = 13.4% consumed — manageable, but IBM Sharpe 0.026 suggests no risk-adjusted return for the drawdown being absorbed.

Conviction jumped from 2→3→4→6 over three sessions — rapid escalation. Theme avg 3m momentum is -11.73% and relative strength vs SPY is -13.74%. Price action does NOT confirm the conviction trajectory.

NVO Sharpe -0.818, ISRG Sharpe -0.181 — two of five positions have negative Sharpe ratios. NVO 6m momentum -30.82%, 3m momentum -24.52% — the Novo Nordisk-OpenAI catalyst has NOT translated to price recovery.

CRSP daily VaR -5.87% and NVO daily VaR -4.08% both exceed the 3% threshold. CRSP vol 61.45% is extreme for a 'moderate' risk tolerance theme.

ABBV portfolio drawdown -4.40% vs 12% threshold = 36.7% consumed. LLY at -2.15% = 17.9% consumed. ISRG at -1.76% = 14.7% consumed. Multiple positions eroding.

HHI at 0.2231 is approaching the 0.25 concentration threshold — monitor for further concentration as conviction rises.

COIN portfolio drawdown -7.61% vs 20% threshold = 38.1% consumed. Improved significantly from -13.00% two sessions ago, but daily VaR -6.48% means two consecutive adverse days would breach threshold. Coverage ratio 1.92x (gap 12.39% vs VaR 6.48%).

Theme avg 6m momentum -39.53% — the worst 6m momentum of ANY theme. 3m momentum -19.60%. MSTR 6m momentum -57.86%. This theme is in a deep structural downtrend.

Theme avg volatility 67.75% — highest in the portfolio alongside quantum. All four positions have daily VaR exceeding 3%: COIN -6.48%, MSTR -6.99%, MARA -7.71%, XYZ -4.86%.

HHI concentration at 0.3061 exceeds the 0.25 threshold — concentration risk in a 4-stock basket.

MSTR Sharpe -0.963, MARA Sharpe 0.073 — two of four positions are effectively destroying or not generating risk-adjusted returns. Consumer sentiment collapse (-12.6% YoY) is a direct headwind for retail-driven crypto demand.

KO portfolio drawdown -2.68% vs 5% max_drawdown threshold = 53.6% consumed — over half the threshold used. PG at -1.67% = 33.4% consumed. JNJ at -1.51% = 30.2% consumed. For a conservative/defensive theme, these drawdowns are notable.

PG Sharpe -1.083 and TLT Sharpe -0.476 — two of five positions have negative Sharpe ratios. PG 6m momentum -4.59% underperforms the defensive basket.

Theme is performing its hedging function well: avg vol 17.69% (lowest), positive 6m momentum +16.01%, positive 3m momentum +9.85%, positive relative strength vs SPY +4.79%. JNJ Sharpe 2.491 and GLD Sharpe 1.428 are portfolio standouts.

Conviction at 8 is appropriate given consumer sentiment collapse and labor market softening signals. The defensive theme is the portfolio's primary hedge against the macro deterioration flagged in key risks.

No theme pairs exceed the 0.70 correlation threshold. All inter-theme correlations are LOW (highest: ai_compute <> crypto_digital at 0.308, ai_compute <> quantum at 0.270, quantum <> crypto_digital at 0.303). Portfolio diversification is structurally sound at the theme level.

CAUTION: ai_compute, quantum, and crypto_digital form a moderate correlation cluster (0.27-0.31 range). In a risk-off event, these three growth/speculative themes could correlate higher than historical averages suggest. Combined they represent conviction 7+1+1=9 out of total portfolio — manageable but worth monitoring if convictions increase.

Defensive theme shows negative correlation with ai_compute (-0.071), crypto_digital (-0.046), and quantum (-0.032) — confirming its hedging function is intact. This supports maintaining elevated defensive conviction.

🚨 CATASTROPHIC — PLTR (defense_aerospace): Portfolio drawdown -15.11% vs 10% threshold = 151.1% consumed. WORSENED from -14.36% last session. 58TH CONSECUTIVE SESSION IN BREACH. This position has been flagged for immediate exit for 58 sessions. The BULL regime provides optimal exit liquidity. Every session of delay increases the probability of a -20%+ loss. THERE IS NO JUSTIFICATION FOR CONTINUED HOLDING.

🚨 CATASTROPHIC — SMR (energy_grid): Portfolio drawdown -13.13% vs 12% threshold = 109.4% consumed. Improved from -18.12% two sessions ago (possible partial reduction), but STILL IN BREACH. Daily VaR -9.78% means a single adverse day pushes to -22.91%. 58th session demanding exit. Vol 103.63% is the highest in the entire portfolio. EXIT IMMEDIATELY.

⚠ ELEVATED — COIN (crypto_digital): Portfolio drawdown -7.61% vs 20% threshold = 38.1% consumed. Improved from -13.00% (significant healing). Coverage ratio 1.92x provides buffer, but crypto fat-tail distribution means VaR understates true risk. Monitor closely.

⚠ WATCH — GD (defense_aerospace): Portfolio drawdown -4.84% vs 10% threshold = 48.4% consumed. Approaching half-consumed. GD 3m momentum only +2.94% — weakest in the defense basket ex-PLTR.

⚠ WATCH — ABBV (biotech_health): Portfolio drawdown -4.40% vs 12% threshold = 36.7% consumed. Negative 3m momentum (-1.92%) and Sharpe 0.521 suggest limited recovery catalyst.

⚠ WATCH — LEN (real_estate): Portfolio drawdown -4.19% vs 10% threshold = 41.9% consumed. 3m momentum -20.30%, Sharpe -0.423. Macro headwinds (high rates, collapsing consumer sentiment) make recovery unlikely near-term.

Summary:
**Portfolio Risk Score: 0.42 (Elevated) — No Veto, but two positions demand IMMEDIATE EXIT.**

The BULL regime (98.8% confidence) and low VIX (19.12) provide a structurally supportive backdrop, and inter-theme correlations are universally low — portfolio diversification is sound. This prevents a veto. However, the portfolio carries two catastrophic position-level breaches that have persisted for 58 consecutive sessions:

**PLTR (-15.11% portfolio drawdown vs 10% limit, 151.1% consumed, WORSENED this session)** and **SMR (-13.13% vs 12% limit, 109.4% consumed)** must be exited immediately. These are not risk flags — they are risk failures. The BULL regime provides the best exit liquidity we've seen. Every session of delay is a conscious choice to hold positions that have exceeded their maximum allowable loss by 51% and 9% respectively. I have demanded exit on both for 58 consecutive sessions.

**Key macro concern:** Consumer sentiment collapsed -12.6% YoY to 56.6 while unemployment ticked up to 4.3% — a classic leading indicator divergence from strong headline GDP (5.36%). The BULL regime transition probability to NEUTRAL is 6.1%, which seems low given these deteriorating fundamentals. If consumer sentiment breaks below 50 or unemployment hits 4.5%, regime transition risk spikes materially.

**Conviction-price divergences to flag:**
- Biotech conviction 6 but 3m momentum -11.73% and relative strength -13.74% vs SPY. The Novo-OpenAI catalyst has not translated to NVO price recovery (-24.52% 3m). Conviction is running ahead of price.
- AI conviction 7 but 3m momentum turned negative (-5.04%). AVGO, MSFT, AMD all deteriorating. Still holdable given near-zero portfolio drawdowns, but the momentum turn warrants vigilance.

**Defensive floor recommendation: 6.** Consumer sentiment collapse and labor market softening justify maintaining strong defensive positioning. Current conviction 8 is appropriate and should not be reduced below 6 under any circumstances. JNJ (Sharpe 2.49) and GLD (Sharpe 1.43) are among the best risk-adjusted performers in the entire portfolio.

**Bottom line:** The portfolio's macro positioning is reasonable (growth themes in BULL regime, strong defensive hedge), but the refusal to exit PLTR and SMR after 58 sessions of breach is an unacceptable risk management failure that no amount of macro tailwind can justify.

Summary: 8 themes processed. 1 contested: defense_aerospace. 7 conviction changes

Summary: 16 orders, 11 risk exits, 3 sells, 2 buys, turnover 5.28%, regime sizing 100%