BULL regime with 92.7% confidence and 3-day persistence. Fed Funds at 3.64% (restrictive but stable), CPI at 3.32% YoY (moderating from prior peaks), and GDP growth at 5.36% YoY (robust). VIX at 19.23 (below 20 threshold, no elevated fear). Market regime HMM shows 93.9% self-transition probability for BULL, indicating strong regime persistence. However, consumer sentiment has deteriorated sharply to 56.6 (down from 64.7 YoY), signaling a disconnect between equity market strength and household confidence. This is a risk-on regime with underlying consumer fragility.

Restrictive but holding steady. Fed Funds at 3.64% remains above the neutral rate (estimated 2.5-3.0%), maintaining a tightening bias. No rate cuts are priced in the near term. The Fed is in a "higher for longer" posture, balancing moderating inflation (3.32% vs prior peaks) against robust growth (5.36% YoY). This is a "pause and assess" stance—not tightening further, but not easing either. The restrictive stance is a headwind for rate-sensitive themes (real_estate, defensive) but is being offset by strong growth and risk-on sentiment in equities.

Moderating but sticky above target. CPI at 3.32% YoY is down from prior peaks but remains 0.82pp above the Fed's 2.5% implicit target. The trajectory is disinflationary (moving in the right direction), but the pace of decline is slowing. This suggests inflation is "sticky" in the 3.0-3.5% range rather than rolling over to 2.0-2.5%. The Fed's restrictive stance is appropriate for this environment—inflation is not accelerating, but it is not yet at target. Expect the Fed to hold rates steady through 2Q 2026 and reassess in 3Q based on Q2 CPI prints. This is a "goldilocks" inflation backdrop: not so high as to trigger panic, not so low as to justify rate cuts.

Strong and accelerating. GDP at 5.36% YoY is well above trend (2.5-3.0% long-term potential), signaling robust demand and productivity gains. Housing starts at 1,487K units (+9.5% YoY) indicate construction momentum. However, consumer sentiment at 56.6 (down 8.1pp YoY) is a warning flag—households are pessimistic despite strong macro data. This suggests growth is being driven by corporate investment (AI capex, defense spending) and government spending, not consumer demand. The divergence is critical: growth is real, but it is not broadly felt. Expect growth to remain above trend through 2Q 2026, but deceleration risk rises if consumer sentiment continues to deteriorate.

Explanation: Strong tailwind. BULL regime (92.7% confidence), robust GDP growth (5.36% YoY), and low VIX (19.23) create a risk-on environment where AI capex spending accelerates. Fed holding rates steady at 3.64% is restrictive but not tightening further, reducing refinancing risk for high-capex tech firms. The disconnect between strong growth and weak consumer sentiment actually favors AI_COMPUTE—corporate investment in AI infrastructure is the growth driver, not consumer spending. Expect continued AI capex momentum through 2026.

Explanation: Moderate headwind. Fed Funds at 3.64% (restrictive) and consumer sentiment at 56.6 (recessionary levels) are significant headwinds. Housing starts at 1,487K (+9.5% YoY) show construction momentum, but this is likely driven by supply-side dynamics (pent-up demand from prior years) rather than household demand. Consumer pessimism (56.6 vs 64.7 YoY) suggests demand-side weakness ahead. The BULL regime provides some offset, but the combination of high rates and weak sentiment is a net headwind for real_estate. REITs and homebuilders face margin compression from sticky rates.

Explanation: Moderate tailwind. Strong GDP growth (5.36% YoY) and robust AI capex spending drive electricity demand. Nuclear renaissance and grid modernization are structural tailwinds independent of macro regime. However, the prior session flagged SMR (small modular reactors) as a catastrophic breach position (154.9% of 12% threshold), indicating idiosyncratic execution risk in this sub-theme. Macro conditions are favorable, but company-specific risks are severe. The theme itself benefits from growth, but portfolio positioning is problematic.

Explanation: Moderate tailwind. BULL regime and strong growth support defense spending. Prior session flagged a narrative split: PLTR faces idiosyncratic Anthropic AI competitive risk (175.3% of 10% threshold breach), while traditional defense primes (LMT, RTX, NOC, GD) benefit from geopolitical escalation (Strait of Hormuz blockade). The theme is macro-positive, but PLTR's idiosyncratic risk is severe. Traditional defense primes are better positioned than AI-focused defense plays in this environment.

Explanation: Mild tailwind. BULL regime and strong growth support early-stage quantum investment. However, prior session flagged Google's potential pivot from superconducting to neutral atom architecture, which could disadvantage IBM's quantum narrative. The theme benefits from risk-on sentiment and growth expectations, but technology roadmap uncertainty is a headwind. Quantum HHI at 0.3061 (>0.25 limit) indicates concentration risk that is blocking conviction increases.

Explanation: Moderate tailwind. BULL regime and strong growth support biotech investment. GLP-1 revolution and aging population are structural tailwinds. However, prior session flagged India's GLP-1 generics launch as a signal of future pricing power erosion—the duopoly pricing moat is not as durable as currently priced. LLY and NVO face margin compression risk as patents expire globally. The theme is macro-positive, but valuation risk is elevated due to pricing power deterioration.

Explanation: Mild tailwind. BULL regime (92.7% confidence), low VIX (19.23), and risk-on sentiment are tailwinds for crypto. Fed holding rates steady at 3.64% reduces refinancing pressure on crypto-adjacent fintech. However, prior session flagged COIN at 68.4% of 20% threshold (elevated risk, though improved from 81.7% imminent breach). Crypto HHI at 0.3061 (>0.25 limit) is blocking conviction increases. Macro conditions are favorable, but portfolio positioning and concentration risk are constraints.

Explanation: Mild headwind. BULL regime (92.7% confidence) and low VIX (19.23) reduce demand for defensive hedges. Risk-on sentiment favors growth over stability. However, consumer sentiment at 56.6 (recessionary levels) and the disconnect between strong macro data and household pessimism suggest tail risk is present. Defensive conviction at 7 (should be ≥8) is blocking adequate hedging. In a BULL regime, defensive is a headwind, but the consumer sentiment divergence warrants higher defensive positioning than the regime alone suggests.

Consumer sentiment collapse (56.6, down 8.1pp YoY) signals household pessimism despite strong macro data. This divergence suggests growth is corporate/government-driven, not consumer-driven. If consumer sentiment falls below 50, recession risk rises sharply. Current level is consistent with 2008-2009 recessionary periods.

Fed holding rates at 3.64% (restrictive) while inflation remains sticky at 3.32% YoY creates a 'higher for longer' environment. If inflation re-accelerates above 3.5% in Q2 2026, the Fed may be forced to hold rates through 3Q, extending the headwind for rate-sensitive themes (real_estate, defensive).

BULL regime persistence at 93.9% self-transition probability masks underlying fragility. VIX at 19.23 is not elevated, but the 0.071 probability of BEAR regime transition means a single adverse catalyst (geopolitical escalation, earnings miss, inflation surprise) could trigger rapid regime shift.

Prior sessions flagged two catastrophic portfolio breaches: SMR at 154.9% of 12% threshold and PLTR at 171.0% of 10% threshold. These positions have persisted through 53 consecutive sessions with zero remediation, representing a critical risk governance failure. A single adverse day could trigger cascading losses.

Crypto_digital (COIN) at 68.4% of 20% threshold remains at elevated risk despite improvement from 81.7% imminent breach. A single 95th-percentile adverse day would breach the threshold. Crypto HHI at 0.3061 (>0.25 limit) indicates concentration risk blocking conviction increases.

Summary: The macro environment is BULL-regime-positive with robust GDP growth (5.36% YoY), moderating inflation (3.32% YoY), and low VIX (19.23), but is masked by a critical consumer sentiment collapse (56.6, down 8.1pp YoY) that signals household pessimism despite strong data. Growth is corporate/government-driven (AI capex, defense spending), not consumer-driven, creating a divergence that favors growth themes (ai_compute +0.75, energy_grid +0.55, biotech_health +0.50) while penalizing consumer-sensitive themes (real_estate -0.35, defensive -0.25). The Fed's restrictive stance at 3.64% is a headwind for rate-sensitive themes but is being offset by strong growth momentum. The portfolio faces critical idiosyncratic risks (SMR and PLTR in catastrophic breach across 53 sessions) that are masking the macro tailwind and preventing conviction increases across favorable themes.

Trump's Hormuz Blockade Sends Oil Past $100 — US-Iran Attrition Game Begins

CoreWeave Stock Surging on AI Deals — Analysts Upgrade, Hike Price Targets After Flurry of Deal Announcements

OpenAI Says Microsoft 'Limited' Its Reach, Slams Anthropic for 'Inflated $30B Revenue' — Memo Highlights Shifting AI Alliance Dynamics

Goldman Sachs Declares Tech Stocks Oversold — SaaS Stocks Try to Recover ('Software Empire Strikes Back')

Dell Technologies Soars on NVIDIA Takeover Rumor

Big Tech Puts Financial Heft Behind Next-Gen Nuclear Power as AI Demand Surges

NuScale Power: ENTRA1 Lawsuits and Commercialization Concerns Test Investor Confidence — Securities Fraud Class Actions Filed

NuScale Power (SMR) Down 43.5% YTD — May 7 Earnings Could Change Everything

US Military Adopts Siege Strategy at Hormuz — Defense Stocks Mostly Higher; LMT, RTX, NOC, ITA Surge Amid Fading Truce Hopes

Northrop Grumman (NOC) Narrative Shifting With New Targets — Analysts Refresh Assumptions, Cluster of Higher Price Targets

Rigetti Launches Cepheus-1-108Q Quantum System — New 2-Qubit Gate Fidelity Record Set; Available on Amazon Braket

Rigetti: Solid Government Deals, Weak Commercial Demand — Mizuho Slashes Quantum Price Targets 25%; Hype Fading

Bitcoin's Quantum Debate Shifting — Bernstein Says Market Has Likely Already Priced Quantum Risk as Migration Problem, Not Panic

Eli Lilly Receives FDA Approval for Foundayo (GLP-1 Weight Loss Pill) — Advances Leukemia Drug in Late-Stage Trial

India GLP-1 Generics Launch — Cheap Semaglutide Pressures NVO Pricing; Lilly Franchise Sees Volume Effects

NVO Crashes 36% in 3 Months — Weak 2026 Outlook, Rising Competition and Pricing Pressure Cloud Near-Term Growth

Amazon Pharmacy Enters Weight Loss Market with Lilly GLP-1, Same-Day Delivery — Raises Competitive Pressure on Hims & Hers

Strategy (MSTR) Snaps Up 13,927 Bitcoin Using Preferred Stock Sales — Bitcoin Reserves Dwarf Debt, Solvency Strengthening

Crypto's Second Chance at ETFs — Tokenized Funds May Succeed Where Binance Failed

Builder Stocks Jump on Cease-Fire; D.R. Horton Expands Credit Facility to $4B — Toll Brothers Outperforming Peers

D.R. Horton Faces Defective PEX Plumbing Claims in Georgia — Risk of Broader Litigation and Reputational Pressure

Consumer Sentiment Hits 74-Year Low — Pre-Markets in Red on Hormuz Blockade; Stock Futures Down, Oil Rises Past $100

Steve Eisman: Every Private Equity Software Deal Is Underwater 'And Probably By A Lot'

LVMH Q1 Revenue Misses Estimates — Middle East Conflict Impacted Tourist Spending in Europe; ~1% Negative Impact on Organic Growth

CoreWeave surging on Meta/Anthropic AI deals — analysts upgrade and hike price targets, signaling neocloud demand acceleration

Goldman Sachs declares tech/software stocks oversold — institutional dip-buying narrative forming ('Software Empire Strikes Back')

Dell Technologies soars on NVIDIA takeover rumor — M&A narrative adds speculative premium to AI infrastructure

OpenAI memo attacks Microsoft as 'limiting' and slams Anthropic's $30B revenue claim — AI alliance fracture narrative emerging but MSFT stock gains despite tension

Amazon leading Mag-7 rebound but hitting technical resistance ceiling — rally has momentum but faces near-term supply

The OpenAI-Microsoft-Anthropic memo is the session's most underappreciated AI narrative signal. OpenAI publicly characterizing Microsoft as a constraint on its reach — while simultaneously attacking Anthropic's revenue credibility — represents a fracturing of the AI alliance narrative that has underpinned the entire Mag-7 AI story. This is NOT yet priced: MSFT is rallying despite the memo, suggesting the market is reading it as noise. But if OpenAI is positioning for a structural renegotiation of its Microsoft partnership (or a future split), the implications for MSFT's AI moat narrative are significant. Simultaneously, the CoreWeave deal flow (Meta + Anthropic) signals that hyperscalers are diversifying AI compute away from pure MSFT/Google/AWS — a structural shift in who captures AI infrastructure spend. The narrative is bifurcating: AI demand remains robust (CoreWeave, Oracle soaring), but the alliance structures that defined the first wave are visibly cracking.

Builder stocks jumped on cease-fire news — homebuilder ETF up 6.4%, biggest gain since July 2025

D.R. Horton expands credit facility to $4B — financial flexibility signal ahead of potential rate environment shift

Toll Brothers outperforming peers as housing stabilizes

DHI faces defective PEX plumbing litigation in Georgia — reputational and legal overhang on largest homebuilder

Consumer sentiment at 74-year low and Hormuz-driven oil spike create affordability headwinds — rate cut hopes now complicated by inflationary oil shock

Big Tech (Reuters) formally backing next-gen nuclear with financial commitments — AI-to-nuclear demand pipeline narrative strengthening

NuScale (SMR) securities fraud class actions filed over ENTRA1 misrepresentation — commercialization credibility severely damaged

SMR down 43.5% YTD with May 7 earnings as potential inflection — high-risk binary event approaching

Nuclear renaissance '$10 trillion opportunity' narrative persists in retail media despite SMR-specific execution failures

Hormuz blockade sends oil past $100 — energy price spike is a double-edged sword: bullish for energy broadly, but raises input costs for grid buildout

US formally implements Hormuz blockade — oil past $100, US-Iran attrition game begins; defense primes (LMT, RTX, NOC, GD) directly benefiting

Defense ETFs (ITA) surging as Middle East truce hopes fade — demand for missiles, air defense systems, military production accelerating

Northrop Grumman: cluster of analyst price target upgrades, earnings beat potential flagged by Zacks

Kratos lands $446.8M US Space Force contract — space-based defense expanding

Iran's new Supreme Leader confirmed with severe injuries from February airstrike — leadership instability adds to conflict duration risk (bullish for defense duration)

Rigetti launches Cepheus-1-108Q — new 2-qubit gate fidelity record, available on Amazon Braket; technical milestone is real

Mizuho slashes IonQ, D-Wave, Rigetti price targets by 25% — institutional de-rating of quantum pure-plays accelerating

Rigetti: solid government deals but weak commercial demand — path to scalable growth remains uncertain

Motley Fool: 'initial hype surrounding quantum computing slowly fades' — retail narrative turning cautious

Canada quantum opportunity piece — policy-level interest remains, but commercial reality lagging

FDA approves Foundayo — Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 weight loss pill; first oral GLP-1 approval is a structural expansion of addressable market

Lilly advances leukemia drug in late-stage trial — pipeline diversification beyond obesity strengthens the 'obesity empire' narrative

India GLP-1 generics launch (semaglutide) — NVO pricing power under acute pressure; Lilly franchise seeing volume effects (prior session shift CONTINUING to develop)

NVO down 36% in 3 months — weak 2026 outlook, competition, pricing pressure; NVO narrative in structural deterioration

Amazon Pharmacy enters GLP-1 market with same-day delivery — distribution disruption adds competitive layer to Hims & Hers specifically

Strategy (MSTR) buys 13,927 BTC using preferred stock sales — continued accumulation signals conviction; Bitcoin reserves dwarf debt

Bernstein: Bitcoin quantum debate reframing as 'migration problem not market panic' — quantum risk narrative being defused

Tokenized fund ETF narrative emerging — crypto's 'second chance' at institutional ETF access

Consumer sentiment at 74-year low and Hormuz oil shock create risk-off headwinds for crypto broadly

MSTR trading at deep discount to NAV — valuation gap persists despite Bitcoin volatility

Consumer sentiment hits 74-year low — recessionary signal that should be bullish for defensives, but Hormuz oil shock creates stagflationary complexity

Hormuz blockade: oil past $100 — inflationary shock complicates Fed rate cut path, pressuring TLT (bonds) while potentially supporting GLD

LVMH Q1 revenue miss — Middle East conflict impacting European tourist spending; ~1% drag on organic growth signals real consumer softness

JNJ and AbbVie flagged as stable earnings plays — defensive pharma narrative intact

Goldman Sachs earnings beat on volatility/dealmaking — financials not behaving defensively (GS down 3.6% post-beat)

HORMUZ OIL SHOCK IS THE SESSION'S MACRO SPINE: Oil past $100 simultaneously (1) boosts defense_aerospace primes via conflict escalation, (2) pressures real_estate via rate-cut-path uncertainty, (3) creates stagflationary headwinds for defensive/TLT, (4) raises energy_grid infrastructure input costs, and (5) introduces risk-off pressure on crypto_digital. A single geopolitical event is creating divergent second-order effects across 5 of 8 themes — the market has not yet fully disaggregated these impacts.

AI DEMAND → NUCLEAR SUPPLY CHAIN: Big Tech's formal financial commitment to next-gen nuclear (Reuters) reinforces the ai_compute → energy_grid dependency narrative. CoreWeave's deal surge (Meta, Anthropic) means neocloud AI compute demand is accelerating, which directly feeds nuclear/grid buildout urgency. This cross-theme link is strengthening each session.

OPENAI ALLIANCE FRACTURE: The OpenAI memo attacking both Microsoft and Anthropic simultaneously is a cross-theme signal. For ai_compute, it threatens MSFT's AI moat narrative. For defense_aerospace, Anthropic's credibility attack from OpenAI is a secondary tailwind for PLTR's competitors (though PLTR's own Anthropic-related risk remains idiosyncratic). The AI alliance architecture is visibly destabilizing.

GLP-1 PRICING MOAT EROSION (CONTINUING FROM PRIOR SESSION): The India generics narrative flagged last session is now compounded by Amazon Pharmacy's GLP-1 distribution entry. Two separate forces — generic pricing pressure (NVO) and distribution disruption (Hims & Hers, Amazon) — are converging on the GLP-1 duopoly simultaneously. LLY's oral pill approval is a volume offset, but the pricing power narrative erosion is accelerating. This is the third consecutive session where this signal has strengthened.

QUANTUM HYPE DEFLATION vs. GOVERNMENT DEMAND FLOOR: Mizuho's 25% price target cuts and Motley Fool's 'hype fading' narrative contrast with Rigetti's solid government deal flow. The commercial quantum narrative is deflating while government/defense quantum demand provides a floor. This creates a bifurcated quantum investment case: pure commercial plays (RGTI at current valuations) are vulnerable; defense-adjacent quantum exposure may be more durable.

CONSUMER STRESS TRIFECTA: 74-year low consumer sentiment + $100 oil (→ $4+ gas) + LVMH Q1 miss collectively paint a picture of accelerating consumer stress that is NOT yet fully reflected in defensive theme positioning. The stagflationary oil shock complicates the traditional defensive playbook (bonds hurt by inflation, gold benefits, staples face input cost pressure).

Summary:
This session is dominated by two competing macro forces that create a bifurcated market: (1) the Hormuz blockade sending oil past $100 and triggering a US-Iran attrition narrative that is structurally bullish for defense primes but stagflationary for the broader economy, and (2) a genuine AI infrastructure demand acceleration (CoreWeave deals, Big Tech nuclear commitments, Goldman oversold call) that is driving a tech rebound despite macro headwinds.

The session's single flagged NARRATIVE SHIFT is in ai_compute: the OpenAI memo publicly fracturing the Microsoft-OpenAI alliance narrative while simultaneously attacking Anthropic's revenue credibility represents a structural change in the AI partnership landscape that the market is currently misreading as noise (MSFT rallying despite the memo). This is the kind of pre-price signal that warrants attention — not a bearish call on AI demand, but a bearish call on the specific alliance structures that have underpinned MSFT's AI moat valuation.

Continuity from prior sessions: (1) The GLP-1 pricing moat erosion narrative (flagged session -1) continues to develop — now compounded by Amazon Pharmacy's distribution entry, making this the third consecutive session of signal strengthening. LLY's oral pill approval provides a volume offset but does not address the structural pricing power question. (2) The defense_aerospace intra-theme split (PLTR idiosyncratic risk vs. traditional primes Hormuz tailwind) flagged in session -3 is now fully confirmed and accelerating — the Hormuz blockade is a hard catalyst for LMT/RTX/NOC/GD while PLTR's Anthropic competitive risk remains unresolved. (3) The quantum Google architecture shift flagged in session -2 has not materially evolved this session; Mizuho's 25% price target cuts are consistent with the hype deflation narrative but do not add new directional information.

Portfolio context: SMR and PLTR remain in catastrophic breach per prior session risk flags. The Hormuz oil shock is an additional headwind for SMR (input cost pressure on nuclear buildout, plus SMR-specific ENTRA1 litigation). The defense_aerospace Hormuz tailwind benefits LMT/RTX/NOC/GD but NOT PLTR, which faces a separate idiosyncratic narrative crisis. The BULL regime context means exits into strength remain the optimal risk management action for both positions.

The session's single flagged NARRATIVE SHIFT is in ai_compute — the OpenAI-Microsoft-Anthropic memo fractures the AI alliance narrative in a way the market is currently misreading as noise (MSFT rallying despite the memo). This is a pre-price signal: if OpenAI is positioning for a structural renegotiation or split from Microsoft, the implications for who captures AI infrastructure spend are significant. Simultaneously, CoreWeave's deal surge (Meta + Anthropic) confirms that hyperscalers are diversifying AI compute away from pure MSFT/Google/AWS — a structural shift that benefits the broader AI infrastructure theme even as specific alliance structures crack. Macro tailwind is strong (+0.75 impact score), BULL regime at 92.7% confidence, GDP at 5.36% YoY. Theme avg 6m momentum +7.45% is positive. Relative strength vs SPY +3.0 is modestly positive. Goldman Sachs 'oversold' call and Dell/NVIDIA M&A rumor add speculative premium. Portfolio drawdowns are minimal (NVDA -0.03%, MSFT -0.10%, AMZN -0.02%) — no risk governance blockers on this theme specifically. Three consecutive sessions of +1 delta being vetoed solely due to SMR/PLTR catastrophic breach, not due to ai_compute fundamentals. The narrative shift is the 40% weight signal firing — this is the AI edge.

The OpenAI memo is a double-edged sword: while it signals AI demand diversification (bullish for infrastructure broadly), it threatens MSFT's AI moat narrative specifically, and MSFT is a top-10 holding with -16.03% 3m momentum and -18.13% relative strength vs SPY. SMCI has near-zero Sharpe (0.01) and -66.18% max drawdown. Theme avg 3m momentum is -4.48% — short-term momentum is negative. High volatility (40.63% avg). Prior three +1 delta proposals were vetoed on portfolio-level risk grounds (SMR/PLTR breach). If those positions remain unresolved, this delta will be vetoed again regardless of fundamentals. The AI alliance fracture could accelerate if OpenAI formally renegotiates Microsoft terms, creating near-term uncertainty for the largest AI infrastructure player.

Builder stocks jumped 6.4% on cease-fire news — the largest single-day gain since July 2025 — signaling latent demand sensitivity to rate/geopolitical relief. D.R. Horton expanding credit facility to $4B signals financial flexibility and management confidence. Housing starts at 1,487K (+9.5% YoY) show construction momentum. TOL and SPG show positive relative strength vs SPY (+9.54 and +9.54 respectively). O (Realty Income) has +14.75% 3m momentum and +8.8% relative strength. Conviction is already at floor (1), so downside is limited.

Macro impact score is -0.35 — a moderate headwind. Fed Funds at 3.64% (restrictive) combined with consumer sentiment at 74-year low creates a toxic affordability environment. The Hormuz oil shock ($100+ oil) complicates the rate-cut path, extending the 'higher for longer' headwind. Theme avg 6m momentum -12.58% and 3m momentum -5.98% are both negative. Relative strength vs SPY -5.38 is negative. LEN has -40.39% max drawdown and -4.11% portfolio drawdown. RKT has -42.45% max drawdown and -30.93% 6m momentum. DHI faces PEX plumbing litigation overhang. No narrative shift detected. The cease-fire bounce is a tactical relief rally, not a structural change. Conviction at 1 (floor) — no room to cut further, but no justification to increase.

Big Tech's formal financial commitment to next-gen nuclear (Reuters) reinforces the ai_compute → energy_grid demand pipeline — this cross-theme link is strengthening each session. GEV has +56.51% relative strength vs SPY and +2.552 Sharpe — the strongest single-stock signal in the theme. NEE shows +15.35% relative strength and +12.87% 3m momentum. UEC has +1.748 Sharpe. The '$10 trillion nuclear opportunity' narrative persists. Macro impact +0.55 is a moderate tailwind. The prior session proposed +1 delta for energy_grid and it was vetoed — but the veto was on portfolio-level grounds (SMR/PLTR breach), not energy_grid fundamentals. If SMR is exited, the catastrophic breach is resolved and the structural tailwind can be captured through GEV/NEE/UEC.

SMR remains in catastrophic breach at 154.9% of 12% threshold (portfolio drawdown -18.03%, daily VaR -9.80%). This single position is the primary reason the entire portfolio has been vetoed for 53 consecutive sessions. NuScale securities fraud class actions filed over ENTRA1 misrepresentation — commercialization credibility severely damaged. SMR down 43.5% YTD with May 7 earnings as a binary risk event. Theme avg 3m momentum -7.75% is negative. FSLR has -24.66% 3m momentum. CEG has -16.72% 3m momentum. Hormuz oil shock raises input costs for grid buildout. No narrative shift detected. Conviction at 1 (floor) — the SMR catastrophic breach must be resolved before any conviction increase is appropriate. Proposing +1 delta here would be immediately vetoed for the 54th consecutive time.

The Hormuz blockade sending oil past $100 is a hard geopolitical catalyst for traditional defense primes — LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, LHX are all directly benefiting. LMT has +39.51% 3m momentum and +13.62% relative strength vs SPY. NOC has +32.58% 3m momentum and +9.82% relative strength. LHX has +25.16% 3m momentum and +1.939 Sharpe. RTX has +16.21% 3m momentum and +1.688 Sharpe. Theme avg 3m momentum +16.49% is the strongest in the portfolio. Northrop Grumman analyst price target cluster upgrades. Kratos lands $446.8M Space Force contract. Iran's new Supreme Leader confirmed with injuries — leadership instability adds to conflict duration risk, extending the defense spending tailwind. Macro impact +0.45. Defense primes (ex-PLTR) are performing exactly as the thesis predicted. The intra-theme split (PLTR idiosyncratic risk vs. traditional primes Hormuz tailwind) flagged in session -3 is now fully confirmed — the Hormuz catalyst is the hard evidence.

PLTR remains in catastrophic breach at 171.0% of 10% threshold (portfolio drawdown -17.66%, daily VaR -5.82%). PLTR has -18.31% 3m momentum and -24.49% relative strength vs SPY — the worst single-stock signal in the theme. The OpenAI memo attacking Anthropic's revenue credibility is a secondary headwind for PLTR's AI platform narrative. PLTR's idiosyncratic Anthropic competitive risk is proven NOT macro-responsive (deteriorated 40pp into prior BULL regime). The theme's overall Sharpe is dragged down by PLTR. Three consecutive sessions of +1 delta vetoed on PLTR breach grounds. If PLTR is not exited, this delta will be vetoed again. The theme's concentration HHI at 0.1834 is approaching the 0.25 limit. The Hormuz escalation could de-escalate rapidly if diplomatic channels open, reversing the defense prime tailwind.

Rigetti's Cepheus-1-108Q launch sets a new 2-qubit gate fidelity record and is available on Amazon Braket — a real technical milestone. Government deal flow remains solid (Rigetti). BULL regime and risk-on sentiment provide a supportive backdrop for early-stage speculative themes. GOOG has +2.412 Sharpe and is the anchor of the theme. Canada policy-level interest in quantum provides a floor for government demand. Conviction at 1 (floor) — downside is limited.

Mizuho slashes IonQ, D-Wave, Rigetti price targets by 25% — institutional de-rating of quantum pure-plays is accelerating. Theme avg 3m momentum -25.22% is the worst in the portfolio. IONQ has -36.08% 3m momentum and -40.65% relative strength vs SPY. RGTI has -38.48% 3m momentum and -40.32% relative strength. Theme avg relative strength vs SPY -26.47 is catastrophically negative. HHI at 0.3061 (>0.25 limit) is a hard blocker on conviction increases per risk governance rules — 20th+ consecutive session in breach. IONQ portfolio drawdown -11.27%, RGTI -6.77%, IBM -4.40%. Google's potential pivot from superconducting to neutral atom architecture (flagged session -2) remains unresolved and is an additional headwind to IBM's quantum narrative. Motley Fool 'hype fading' narrative signals retail sentiment turning. No narrative shift detected. Delta = 0 is the only defensible call.

FDA approves Foundayo — Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 weight loss pill. This is a structural expansion of the addressable market: oral delivery removes the injection barrier, opening the GLP-1 market to a significantly larger patient population. This is a volume offset to the pricing power erosion narrative. LLY pipeline diversification (leukemia drug in late-stage trial) strengthens the 'obesity empire' narrative beyond a single product. Macro impact +0.50 is a moderate tailwind. BULL regime supports biotech investment. LLY has +29.22% 6m momentum. CRSP has +1.12% relative strength vs SPY and +0.795 Sharpe. ABBV is flagged as a stable earnings play with +0.08% 3m momentum and +0.463 Sharpe. Amazon Pharmacy's GLP-1 entry with same-day delivery expands distribution reach for LLY's franchise. Conviction at 1 (floor) — even a modest +1 delta to 2 is appropriate given the FDA approval catalyst and macro tailwind.

The GLP-1 pricing moat erosion narrative is in its third consecutive session of signal strengthening: India generics (NVO pricing pressure) + Amazon Pharmacy distribution disruption (Hims & Hers competitive pressure) are converging simultaneously. NVO is down 36% in 3 months with -22.49% 3m momentum and -35.14% relative strength vs SPY — the worst single-stock signal in the theme. NVO Sharpe is -0.885. Theme avg 3m momentum -10.60% is negative. Theme avg relative strength vs SPY -14.08 is significantly negative. ISRG has -13.79% 3m momentum and -18.63% relative strength. CRSP has -15.14% 3m momentum. ABBV portfolio drawdown -5.82%, ISRG -4.54%, LLY -2.92%. The prior session flagged this as a narrative shift (GLP-1 pricing moat erosion) — while no new shift is detected this session, the signal is continuing to develop. The FDA approval is a volume catalyst but does not address structural pricing power deterioration.

COIN improved from 81.7% to 68.4% threshold consumption — the imminent breach condition resolved two sessions ago and has stabilized. Strategy (MSTR) buying 13,927 BTC signals institutional conviction. Bernstein reframing Bitcoin quantum risk as 'migration problem not panic' defuses a key bear narrative. Tokenized fund ETF narrative emerging — crypto's 'second chance' at institutional access. BULL regime (92.7% confidence) and low VIX (19.23) are tailwinds. MSTR trading at deep discount to NAV represents a potential value opportunity.

HHI at 0.3061 (>0.25 limit) is a hard blocker on conviction increases per risk governance rules — 20th+ consecutive session in breach. COIN portfolio drawdown -14.10% vs 20% threshold = 70.5% consumed — still elevated. Theme avg 6m momentum -40.44% and 3m momentum -21.81% are the worst in the portfolio. MSTR has -57.87% 6m momentum and -1.057 Sharpe. MARA has -44.24% 6m momentum. Theme avg relative strength vs SPY -13.59 is significantly negative. Consumer sentiment at 74-year low and Hormuz oil shock create risk-off headwinds. No narrative shift detected. The HHI blocker alone prevents a conviction increase regardless of narrative or macro conditions. Delta = 0 until HHI is resolved.

Consumer sentiment at 74-year low is a recessionary signal that structurally supports defensive positioning. GLD has +20.01% 3m momentum, +39.47% 6m momentum, and +4.74% relative strength vs SPY — gold is the standout performer in a stagflationary Hormuz oil shock environment. JNJ has +17.19% 3m momentum, +35.60% 6m momentum, +14.77% relative strength vs SPY, and a +2.408 Sharpe — the best risk-adjusted return in the defensive basket. KO has +10.54% 3m momentum and +9.78% relative strength. Theme avg 3m momentum +10.77% and 6m momentum +16.20% are both strongly positive. Theme avg relative strength vs SPY +6.26 is the best in the portfolio. Theme avg volatility 17.72% is the lowest in the portfolio. The Hormuz oil shock ($100+ oil) is stagflationary — GLD benefits directly. The Risk Sentinel has demanded defensive conviction ≥8 for 16 consecutive sessions. This is the single most actionable delta in the portfolio: it resolves a persistent risk governance demand, improves the portfolio's hedge ratio, and is supported by strong quant signals. Conviction at 7 → 8 is the minimum acceptable action.

BULL regime (92.7% confidence) and low VIX (19.23) structurally reduce demand for defensive hedges — risk-on sentiment favors growth over stability. Macro impact score is -0.25 (mild headwind). TLT has -1.52% 3m momentum and -0.508 Sharpe — bonds are being hurt by the inflationary Hormuz oil shock, complicating the traditional defensive playbook. PG has -1.126 Sharpe and -5.13% 6m momentum. LVMH Q1 miss signals real consumer softness that could pressure staples margins. Goldman Sachs earnings beat on volatility/dealmaking — financials not behaving defensively. The stagflationary complexity (oil shock hurts bonds, helps gold, mixed for staples) means the defensive basket is internally bifurcated. However, the portfolio drawdowns are modest (KO -2.53%, PG -2.41%, JNJ -2.98%, GLD -0.64%, TLT -0.26%) — no risk governance blockers within the theme itself.

defensive — Raising conviction from 7 to 8 is the single highest-confidence, lowest-risk action available this session. JNJ (+2.408 Sharpe, +17.19% 3m momentum, +14.77% relative strength vs SPY), GLD (+20.01% 3m momentum, direct Hormuz stagflation beneficiary), and KO (+10.54% 3m momentum) are all outperforming. Theme avg relative strength vs SPY +6.26 is the best in the portfolio. This delta resolves the Risk Sentinel's 16-consecutive-session demand for defensive ≥8, improves the portfolio's hedge ratio against the consumer sentiment collapse (74-year low), and is the only conviction increase that is NOT blocked by the SMR/PLTR catastrophic breach or HHI constraints. Secondary opportunity: defense_aerospace traditional primes (LMT/RTX/NOC/GD/LHX) — the Hormuz blockade is a hard geopolitical catalyst with LMT at +39.51% 3m momentum and +13.62% relative strength vs SPY. The +1 delta to conviction 5 is justified but will likely be vetoed until PLTR is exited.

SMR (energy_grid) and PLTR (defense_aerospace) remain in catastrophic breach for the 53rd consecutive session with zero remediation. SMR at 154.9% of 12% threshold (portfolio drawdown -18.03%, daily VaR -9.80%) and PLTR at 171.0% of 10% threshold (portfolio drawdown -17.66%) are the primary blockers preventing the portfolio from capitalizing on the BULL regime. The BULL regime (92.7% confidence) is the BEST exit opportunity in months — selling into strength is the optimal action. Every session these positions remain is a session where the portfolio cannot act on favorable macro conditions. Secondary risk: COIN at 68.4% of 20% threshold remains elevated — a single 95th-percentile adverse day would breach. The Hormuz oil shock ($100+ oil) is an additional headwind for SMR specifically (input cost pressure on nuclear buildout + ENTRA1 litigation + May 7 earnings binary event). The consumer sentiment collapse (74-year low) signals that the BULL regime's corporate/government-driven growth is not broadly felt — if consumer sentiment falls below 50, recession risk rises sharply and the regime transition probability (currently 6.1%) could spike.

Summary: This session presents a BULL regime with genuine macro tailwinds (GDP +5.36% YoY, VIX 19.23, BULL persistence 93.9%) but the portfolio remains structurally blocked by two catastrophic breach positions (SMR, PLTR) entering their 54th consecutive session of non-remediation. The session's most important signal is the ai_compute NARRATIVE SHIFT — the OpenAI-Microsoft-Anthropic memo fracturing AI alliance structures is a pre-price signal the market is currently misreading as noise. Four conviction changes are proposed: (1) defensive +1 to 8 — the highest-confidence, lowest-risk action, resolving the Risk Sentinel's 16-session demand while capturing GLD/JNJ/KO stagflation outperformance; (2) ai_compute +1 to 5 — narrative shift is the 40% weight signal firing, supported by CoreWeave deal acceleration and Goldman 'oversold' call, though likely vetoed until SMR/PLTR are exited; (3) defense_aerospace +1 to 5 — Hormuz blockade is a hard catalyst for traditional primes (LMT +39.51% 3m momentum), though PLTR breach will likely trigger veto; (4) biotech_health +1 to 2 — FDA oral GLP-1 approval is a structural market expansion catalyst, partially offsetting the pricing moat erosion narrative. Quantum (HHI blocker) and crypto_digital (HHI blocker + elevated COIN drawdown) remain at delta 0. Real estate remains at floor (delta 0) given macro headwinds and negative momentum. The critical message: exiting SMR and PLTR NOW — into BULL regime strength — would likely reduce PRS below 0.65, lift the veto, and enable the portfolio to fully capitalize on the favorable macro environment across ai_compute, defense_aerospace, and biotech_health.

Theme avg 3m momentum is -4.48%, indicating short-term deterioration despite positive 6m (+7.45%). SMCI daily VaR -6.41% exceeds 3% threshold with Sharpe of 0.01 (effectively zero risk-adjusted return). MSFT Sharpe -0.142 (negative) with -16.03% 3m momentum and -34.18% max drawdown.

Theme avg volatility 40.63% is elevated for a conviction-4 theme. SMCI at 77.12% vol is an outlier dragging theme risk higher.

Portfolio drawdowns are minimal (near zero for most tickers) — this is the cleanest theme in the portfolio from a drawdown perspective. No threshold breaches.

AVGO 3m momentum -18.65% and MSFT 3m momentum -16.03% show two mega-cap AI names in significant short-term decline, suggesting rotation risk within the theme.

Theme avg 6m momentum -12.58% and 3m momentum -5.98% — both negative, indicating sustained downtrend. Theme avg relative strength vs SPY is -5.38%.

LEN portfolio drawdown -4.11% vs 10% max_drawdown threshold = 41.1% consumed. LEN Sharpe -0.421 (negative) with -22.9% 3m momentum — worst performer in theme.

RKT daily VaR -4.90% exceeds 3% threshold with 57.12% annualized vol. RKT 3m momentum -24.22% (worst in theme).

Macro headwind score -0.35: Fed Funds at 3.64% (restrictive) + consumer sentiment at 56.6 (recessionary) = double headwind for rate-sensitive real estate. AMT Sharpe -0.891 (deeply negative).

Conviction already at 1 (minimum), limiting downside action. Theme is appropriately sized for its risk profile.

🚨 CATASTROPHIC — SMR portfolio drawdown -18.03% vs 12% max_drawdown threshold = 150.3% consumed. 54TH CONSECUTIVE SESSION IN BREACH. Improved from -18.59% last session (-0.56pp) but remains 50.3% beyond maximum allowed loss. Daily VaR -9.80% (HIGHEST in entire portfolio). 6m momentum -66.57% (WORST in entire portfolio). Annualized vol 103.66%. Sharpe 0.003 (effectively zero). IMMEDIATE EXIT IS THE ONLY ACCEPTABLE ACTION — 54th demand.

Theme avg volatility 59.80% is the second-highest across all themes. SMR at 103.66% vol is an extreme outlier that distorts the entire theme's risk profile.

CEG portfolio drawdown -3.74% vs 12% threshold = 31.2% consumed. CEG daily VaR -4.42% exceeds 3% threshold. 3m momentum -16.72%.

NEE portfolio drawdown -2.41% but positive momentum (3m +12.87%, 6m +28.62%) and Sharpe 1.222 — the only healthy position in this theme.

FSLR 3m momentum -24.66% with 62.57% vol and -4.59% daily VaR exceeding 3% threshold.

🚨 CATASTROPHIC — PLTR portfolio drawdown -17.66% vs 10% max_drawdown threshold = 176.6% consumed. WORSENED from -17.10% last session (+5.6pp). 54TH CONSECUTIVE SESSION IN BREACH. Has lost 76.6% MORE than its maximum allowed drawdown. Daily VaR -5.82% (nearly 2x the 3% threshold). 3m momentum -18.31%. Annualized vol 53.78%. Idiosyncratic Anthropic Mythos AI competitive risk is PROVEN not macro-responsive — deteriorated 40pp into a prior BULL regime. IMMEDIATE EXIT IS THE ONLY ACCEPTABLE ACTION — 54th demand.

PLTR is the ONLY position dragging this theme to critical. Traditional defense primes are performing well: LMT +39.51% 3m, NOC +32.58% 3m, LHX +25.16% 3m, RTX +16.21% 3m. Theme avg momentum is strong at +16.49% 3m.

GD portfolio drawdown -4.64% vs 10% threshold = 46.4% consumed — approaching halfway to breach. 3m momentum only +3.80% (weakest traditional prime).

Removing PLTR would transform this from a critical-risk theme to a low-risk theme with strong momentum and reasonable volatility (avg ~25% ex-PLTR).

HHI at 0.3061 exceeds 0.25 concentration limit — 20th+ consecutive session. This is a structural blocker for conviction increases.

Theme avg 3m momentum -25.22% — worst of all themes. IONQ -36.08% 3m, RGTI -38.48% 3m. Pure-play quantum names are in freefall.

IONQ daily VaR -8.01% and RGTI daily VaR -8.78% — both massively exceed 3% threshold. IONQ vol 92.37%, RGTI vol 106.86%.

IONQ portfolio drawdown -11.27% vs 25% threshold = 45.1% consumed. RGTI portfolio drawdown -6.77% vs 25% = 27.1% consumed. Not yet in breach but deteriorating rapidly.

IBM portfolio drawdown -4.40% with Sharpe -0.008 (effectively zero) and 3m momentum -20.79%. Google architecture pivot risk adds further headwind to IBM's quantum narrative.

Theme avg relative strength vs SPY is -26.47% — worst of all themes by a wide margin.

Theme avg 3m momentum -10.60% with negative relative strength vs SPY (-14.08%). NVO 3m momentum -22.49% with Sharpe -0.885 (deeply negative) and 52.90% vol.

ABBV portfolio drawdown -5.82% vs 12% threshold = 48.5% consumed — approaching halfway to breach. ISRG portfolio drawdown -4.54% vs 12% = 37.8% consumed.

CRSP daily VaR -5.88% exceeds 3% threshold with 61.54% vol. High-risk biotech position.

India GLP-1 generics launch flagged last session as first crack in pricing moat — LLY and NVO face structural margin compression risk not yet priced in. LLY portfolio drawdown -2.92% vs 12% = 24.3% consumed.

NVO daily VaR -4.08% exceeds 3% threshold. Theme avg vol 42.09% is elevated for a moderate risk tolerance theme.

HHI at 0.3061 exceeds 0.25 concentration limit — 20th+ consecutive session. Structural blocker for conviction increases.

COIN portfolio drawdown -14.10% vs 20% threshold = 70.5% consumed. WORSENED from 68.4% last session (+2.1pp). Coverage ratio declining — gap to breach is 5.90% vs daily VaR of 6.48% = 0.91x coverage. A SINGLE 95th-percentile adverse day would breach the threshold.

Theme avg 6m momentum -40.44% — worst of all themes. MSTR -57.87% 6m, MARA -44.24% 6m, COIN -40.35% 6m. Broad-based destruction.

Theme avg volatility 67.69% — highest of all themes. MARA daily VaR -7.72%, MSTR -6.99%, COIN -6.48% — all massively exceed 3% threshold.

MSTR portfolio drawdown -5.89% vs 20% = 29.5% consumed. Sharpe -1.057 (worst in entire portfolio). Negative momentum across all timeframes.

Theme avg relative strength vs SPY is -13.59%. Every single ticker is underperforming SPY.

Defensive conviction at 7 — should be ≥8. 17th consecutive session demanding increase. Consumer sentiment at 56.6 (recessionary levels) warrants higher defensive positioning than current allocation provides.

Theme avg volatility 17.72% — lowest of all themes. Theme avg 3m momentum +10.77% — second-best of all themes. Relative strength vs SPY +6.26% — best of all themes. This is the strongest-performing theme on a risk-adjusted basis.

JNJ Sharpe 2.408 and GLD Sharpe 1.374 — excellent risk-adjusted returns. JNJ portfolio drawdown -2.98% vs 5% threshold = 59.6% consumed — approaching elevated territory for a conservative theme.

KO portfolio drawdown -2.53% vs 5% = 50.6% consumed. PG portfolio drawdown -2.41% vs 5% = 48.2% consumed. Multiple positions approaching halfway to conservative threshold.

PG Sharpe -1.126 (deeply negative) — weakest link in defensive basket. Consider replacing PG with a stronger defensive name.

No inter-theme correlation pairs exceed the 0.7 threshold. All pairs are LOW risk. Highest correlation is ai_compute <> crypto_digital at 0.305 — well below threshold.

Intra-theme concentration risk is the primary concern: crypto_digital HHI 0.3061 and quantum HHI 0.3061 both exceed 0.25 limit for 20+ consecutive sessions with zero remediation. These are structural blockers.

Positive note: defensive theme is negatively correlated with ai_compute (-0.073), crypto_digital (-0.048), and quantum (-0.034), providing genuine portfolio diversification benefit. This supports the case for increasing defensive conviction.

🚨 CATASTROPHIC — SMR (energy_grid): Portfolio drawdown -18.03% vs 12% threshold = 150.3% consumed. 54TH CONSECUTIVE SESSION IN BREACH. Improved marginally from -18.59% last session but remains 50.3% beyond maximum allowed loss. At -9.80% daily VaR, a single adverse day could push drawdown to -27.8% (231.8% of threshold). IMMEDIATE EXIT REQUIRED — 54th demand. The BULL regime is the BEST exit opportunity in months. Sell into strength.

🚨 CATASTROPHIC — PLTR (defense_aerospace): Portfolio drawdown -17.66% vs 10% threshold = 176.6% consumed. WORSENED from -17.10% last session (+5.6pp, reversing prior improvement). 54TH CONSECUTIVE SESSION IN BREACH. Has lost 76.6% MORE than its maximum allowed drawdown. Idiosyncratic Anthropic risk is NOT macro-responsive. IMMEDIATE EXIT REQUIRED — 54th demand.

🔴 IMMINENT BREACH — COIN (crypto_digital): Portfolio drawdown -14.10% vs 20% threshold = 70.5% consumed. WORSENED from 68.4% last session (+2.1pp). Coverage ratio 0.91x (gap 5.90% vs VaR 6.48%). A SINGLE 95th-percentile adverse day would breach the threshold. Trending in wrong direction for 2 consecutive sessions.

⚠ ELEVATED — IONQ (quantum): Portfolio drawdown -11.27% vs 25% threshold = 45.1% consumed. With daily VaR of -8.01%, a single adverse day could push to -19.3% (77.1% consumed). Two consecutive adverse days could breach.

⚠ ELEVATED — ABBV (biotech_health): Portfolio drawdown -5.82% vs 12% threshold = 48.5% consumed. Approaching halfway to breach on a moderate risk tolerance theme.

⚠ WATCH — JNJ (defensive): Portfolio drawdown -2.98% vs 5% threshold = 59.6% consumed. Approaching elevated territory for a conservative-tolerance theme. Ironic that the best-performing defensive name (Sharpe 2.408) is also closest to its conservative drawdown limit.

Summary:
PRS 0.62 — BELOW veto threshold (0.65) for the first time in 53 sessions. VETO LIFTED conditionally.

The two catastrophic breaches that have driven 53 consecutive vetoes have IMPROVED but are NOT resolved:
- SMR: 150.3% of threshold (down from 154.9% last session, down from 177.3% two sessions ago). Healing trajectory but still 50.3% beyond maximum allowed loss. IMMEDIATE EXIT REMAINS NON-NEGOTIABLE.
- PLTR: 176.6% of threshold (WORSENED from 171.0% last session, +5.6pp). Moving in the WRONG direction. IMMEDIATE EXIT REMAINS NON-NEGOTIABLE.

The PRS improvement from 0.68→0.62 is driven by: (1) SMR drawdown improvement (-18.59%→-18.03%), (2) BULL regime shift with 92.7% confidence and 93.9% self-transition probability, (3) low VIX at 19.23, (4) strong GDP growth at 5.36%. However, PLTR worsened, COIN worsened (68.4%→70.5%), and consumer sentiment remains at recessionary 56.6.

WHY THE VETO IS LIFTED: The BULL regime with high confidence and persistence, combined with low inter-theme correlations and minimal portfolio drawdowns across most themes, brings aggregate portfolio risk below the veto threshold. The catastrophic positions (SMR, PLTR) are being partially offset by strong performance in defense primes, defensive assets, and AI compute names with near-zero drawdowns.

CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED NON-VETO STATUS:
1. SMR must be EXITED this session — 54th demand. The BULL regime is the best exit window in months.
2. PLTR must be EXITED this session — 54th demand. It WORSENED this session while everything else improved.
3. Defensive conviction must increase to ≥8 — 17th consecutive demand. Consumer sentiment at 56.6 warrants it.
4. Crypto and quantum HHI (both 0.3061 > 0.25) must be addressed — 20th+ session demand.
5. COIN trending toward breach (70.5%, worsening) — reduce position before next adverse day.

If SMR and PLTR are not exited, the next adverse session will push PRS back above 0.65 and trigger the 54th veto. The portfolio is being held hostage by two positions that have been in catastrophic breach for 53+ sessions with ZERO remediation. Exit them NOW while the BULL regime provides liquidity and favorable pricing.

Summary: 8 themes processed. 1 contested: defense_aerospace. 6 conviction changes

Summary: 23 orders, 2 sells, 21 buys, turnover 6.08%, regime sizing 100%